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In a year that saw no MLB team post 100 wins for the first time since 2014, a case can be made for many of the 12 teams vying to claim the 2024 World Series.
The three favorites (Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies) earned a bye through the wild-card round, as did the Guardians, which obviously helps a great deal when considering the volatility of playoff baseball and factors heavily into the betting prices.
It makes sense that those three teams are the betting favorites, and without considering odds, my choice would be the well-rounded and close-knit Phillies squad breaking through after some close calls.
However, considering San Diego’s price of +1200, it makes sense why they have become the trendy World Series pick in the betting markets. And they’re my favorite bet as well.
2024 World Series odds
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +360 | Orioles | +1100 |
| Yankees | +425 | Padres | +1200 |
| Phillies | +475 | Braves | +1600 |
| Astros | +800 | Brewers | +1800 |
| Guardians | +950 | Mets | +2000 |
2024 World Series prediction and pick
The Padres’ 93 wins are tied with the Yankees and Brewers for the third-most in baseball, behind only the Dodgers (98) and Phillies (95). They have a 48-42 record versus teams above .500, and are second only to the red-hot Tigers with a record of 20-10 over their last 30 games.
That would suggest the Padres aren’t your standard wild-card team, and a deeper dive into the roster makes a particularly appealing case that they are every bit as good as any division-winner in the field.
Padres batters struck out fewer than any other team this season (17.6%) and ranked fourth in K/BB ratio.
Putting balls in play and extending counts with elite pitchers is an asset in the postseason, and not many teams did it better in 2024 than the Padres, who should be able to make life tough for opponents in a long series.
Xander Bogaerts found his form with a .762 OPS since the All-Star break, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been phenomenal since coming off the IL on Sept. 2. Tatis posted a slug rate of .568 over the final month of the regular season.
With those two healthy and in the mix, the Padres feature one of the deeper lineups in baseball, which achieved a wRC+ of 118 in September.
Thanks to the additions of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at the trade deadline, San Diego’s bullpen is arguably the league’s best and enters the playoffs in top form with a 3.14 ERA over the last month. The unit also ranks first in Pitching+ rating and third in xFIP over the full season.
The Padres’ starting rotation is arguably the best unit of any team remaining, specifically in terms of depth. In nine starts since returning from injury on Aug. 12, Joe Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA and 3.18 xFIP. As a result, he earned the start in Game 2 against the Braves.
Yu Darvish has also returned to solid form, with an ERA of 3.55 in five starts since coming off the IL in late August and rejoining the rotation. He is expected to work out of the bullpen in the wild-card round.
There is a case to be made that Musgrove and Darvish are the Padres’ third- and fourth-best starters respectively, based on what Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA, 3.32 xERA) and Michael King (2.95 ERA, 3.54 xERA) have done this season. King will start Tuesday night’s Game 1, with Cease assigned a close-out Game 3, if necessary.
There aren’t many teams in the playoffs offering a starting rotation that goes as deep as San Diego’s, including the World Series-favorite Dodgers.
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It’s difficult to argue the Padres’ lineup is as potent as the Dodgers’, but the depth of their rotation and bullpen makes me believe they can knock off their largest rival if that matchup comes to pass.
San Diego also gets a slight advantage in the wild-card series as Atlanta’s bullpen was worked heavily on Monday, and with the status of Chris Sale up in the air, it will be an uphill climb for the Braves.
BET: Padres to win World Series (+1200, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
