There are times in the NFL when a backup quarterback is thrust into action due to the injury of the starter and produces a strong performance. Then, the following week, you pick that team figuring, “They’re fine with this guy,” only to have him remind you why he’d been standing on the sidelines.
I have a suspicion we will see the complete opposite with Jameis Winston when the Giants host the Titans at MetLife Stadium.
Monday night in Los Angeles was a complete disaster for the Giants. Jaxson Dart went down in a blaze of glory on a real-life “Malachi Crunch” between Byron Young and Josaiah Stewart. It looked bad at first, then some internet lip readers thought they saw a staff member tell John Harbaugh that Dart would miss four to six weeks, and a bit later Joe Schoen irresponsibly told ESPN that Dart was going to be “OK.”
Well, Dart is OK compared to the alternative of being dead, I suppose, but we now know he will miss the rest of the regular season. Winston was terrible in his place Monday, going 11-for-27 for 111 yards and an interception, with the SoFi Stadium turf and receivers’ ankles seemingly his favorite targets. But that doesn’t mean Winston won’t be able to give the Giants their $6.5 million worth over the next 15 games, if that’s the plan.
Winston’s MO throughout his career has been to produce big-stat wins along with losses in which interceptions were the big stat. He rarely gives you nothing, but possibly Monday was a no-win situation given that the injuries to Dart — and later Malik Nabers, Brian Burns and Andrew Thomas — joined forces with the locked-in focus of the Rams off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers.
This week, Harbaugh and the Giants will get a chance to recalibrate their entire operation against the Titans. Tennessee got boat-raced by the Jets in the opener before nearly upsetting the sleepwalking Eagles last week.
If anything, that result combined with the Giants’ 28-6 loss and injury report cut the spread for this game from six points to 2.5. That’s certainly a nice bargain to back whichever dialed-in and healthy players Harbaugh will send onto the field Sunday.
The pick: Giants -2.5.
DETROIT LIONS (-6.5) over New York Jets
The Jets lead the NFL in yards per game allowed with 197, and the Lions are 31st with 457.5. The discrepancy on the other side of the ball is 36 yards in the Lions’ favor. When you add it all up, the Jets have a 224 total yards per game edge on the Lions so far. Each 100 yards is said to equate to seven points, so in theory the Jets are about 16 points to the good in the numbers. How do you not take them getting 6.5 on top of that?
OK … well …
Those stats cover two games each. The Jets played at the Titans and in the rain against the Packers, who lost a key offensive lineman and wide receiver early. The Lions’ numbers include a game in Josh Allen’s new home.
Also, the Lions showed their nuclear offensive capability in Buffalo. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown already have it going. Yes, they have a depleted secondary, but still have Aidan Hutchinson and Jack Campbell out there. And if Frank Reich and Geno Smith are going to target Isaiah Williams six times to Garrett Wilson’s seven, the Jets offense is never going to be able to keep pace with the Lions, who have extra rest off a loss.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
It feels as if the Steelers need a T.J. Watt pick-six to have a chance to win, given how decrepit Aaron Rodgers has appeared. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow looks vintage, and Dexter Lawrence II has added size and snarl to the Bengals defensive front.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Sunday night was “the usual” — Chiefs win for themselves and fail to cover for me. Have to stick with them here, though, and hope Kenneth Walker III and Patrick Mahomes are interested long enough to cover the double digits on the road.
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
While both teams are coming off victories, it’s easier to believe the good times are sustainable for Bryce Young than they are for Deshaun Watson. The Browns win at Tampa Bay made this road spread a little more palatable.
New England Patriots (+3) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The spread ticking up from 2.5 to a full field goal on Thursday was enough extra padding to lead me to a Patriots pick. Even with Drake Maye struggling and A.J. Brown out, I expect the Mike Vrabel defense to rise up against Trevor Lawrence.
BUFFALO BILLS (-7.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
Not expecting things to get much better for the Chargers after they lost the first two at home to the Cardinals and Raiders. It’s what you get when your O-line is in shambles and strange birds Mike McDaniel and Adam Gase are coaching Justin Herbert. Plus, James Cook and the Bills have had extra rest after crushing the Lions.
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Washington is in a similar situation to the Giants, losing Jayden Daniels and replacing him with Marcus Mariota, who was the No. 2 pick in 2015 behind Jameis Winston. The Commanders are a field goal offense without Daniels. Meanwhile, the champs are strong everywhere.
Houston Texans (-1.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I know above I discounted two-week team stats, but it’s hard to ignore that the Colts are allowing 514 yards per game. Holy ShamWow! Looking for a big ground game from David Montgomery and for the Houston defense to get after Daniel Jones.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Total desperation game for just-paid Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, and I like the idea of taking an 0-2 vs. a 2-0 when feasible. While the Vikings get Kyler Murray back from concussion protocol, the Bucs really need this one.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-8.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Geez, we’ve taken almost all favorites so far, including some big ones. Not my usual style, but here’s another one where I have to lay the lumber with an excellent 49ers team that’s capable of blowing out the bottom-feeders.
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens
I know the Cowboys defense hasn’t been good, but this feels like a toss-up game in Rio de Janeiro, so the spread could come in handy on the underdog.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I admit it’s a little hard to picture the Raiders at 3-0. Still, Kirk Cousins has some Saints knowledge from his time with the Falcons, and he might be getting back TE Brock Bowers for this one. And the Saints are walking a tightrope with slow starts, going down 21-0 at Detroit and 14-3 at Baltimore.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) over DENVER BRONCOS
After a nice second-half comeback for the Broncos vs. the Jaguars, this matchup with the Rams seems like a taller task. The Rams are the Super Bowl favorites for a reason … lots of reasons, actually.
MONDAY
CHICAGO BEARS (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley is starting to get dinged up, no surprise to Giants fans. It was nice the Eagles found Zach Ertz on a couch, but he won’t replace the full value of the injured Dallas Goedert. This spread flipped pretty far on Caleb Williams’ injury. Happy to back the sizable underdog Bears with Case Keenum.
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
