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On the surface, it seems like there’s hardly anything that separates Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani this year.
The megastars are massive favorites to win the American League and National League MVP awards, respectively.
Judge led MLB in the regular season with 58 homers, 144 RBIs, a .458 on-base percentage, a .701 slugging percentage and a 1.159 OPS.
Ohtani was second in all categories with 54 homers, 130 RBIs, a .390 on-base percentage, a .646 slugging percentage and a 1.036 OPS.
Their contracts — a nine-year, $360 million deal for Judge and a 10-year, $700 million deal for Ohtani — rank fourth and first in MLB in total value.
They’re separated by just two years — Judge is 32, while Ohtani is 30.
Ohtani’s rare double ability as an elite pitcher as well as a hitter would be a natural point of difference, but he hasn’t pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2023.
For the time being, that’s a moot point.
So, where do they differ?
The most obvious is in their baserunning. Ohtani’s speed is a real weapon, recording 59 stolen bases in the regular season to Judge’s 10.
Ohtani became the first player to hit at least 50 homers and steal at least 50 bases in a season.
Now, how do they compare beyond the surface in more advanced stats? Let’s start with the regular season first.
Plate discipline
Judge swung at 17.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, according to FanGraphs. Ohtani was far less disciplined, swinging at 26.0 percent of pitches outside the zone.
That matches Judge’s more patient approach — he swung at 42 percent of total pitches he saw, while Ohtani was at 47.3 percent.
Plate tendencies
Ohtani’s lefty-righty splits are much more stark than Judge’s. Ohtani, a lefty, had a 1.128 OPS facing righties versus a .867 OPS against lefties. Judge, a righty, had a 1.132 OPS facing righties compared to a 1.240 OPS against lefties.
Ohtani is much more of a pull hitter. He pulled 48 percent of his batted balls, while Judge pulled 35 percent of his. Judge utilizes center field much more, hitting 50 percent of his batted balls there compared to Ohtani’s 36 percent.
Neither struggled against any one pitch. Of pitches Judge saw at least 60 times, his lowest OPS was .861, on curveballs. He had a .998 OPS or higher against all other pitches. He was best against speed, owning a 1.247 and 1.272 OPS against fastballs and sinkers, respectively.
Ohtani’s lowest OPS against pitches he saw at least 60 times was an .832 mark against cutters. His OPS was .944 or higher against all other pitches.
Ohtani sees far more first-pitch strikes, at 60.2 percent, than Judge does at 51.8 percent.
Batted balls
Ohtani hits far more ground balls — 40.0 percent of his batted balls, compared to Judge’s 30.0 percent. They hit fly balls at similar rates — Judge at 55 percent, Ohtani at 52 percent — but Judge hits significantly more line drives at 15.0 percent compared to Ohtani’s 8.0 percent.
They both hit the ball extremely hard — Judge had a 45.0 percent hard-hit percentage on batted balls, while Ohtani was at 44.0. But Judge made better contact more consistently, hitting 26.9 percent of batted balls on the barrel compared to Ohtani’s 21.4 percent. That is probably why Judge has a slightly higher average exit velocity at 96.2 miles per hour compared to Ohtani’s 95.8 mph.
Judge has a higher average launch angle as well, at 18.9 degrees compared to Ohtani’s 16.2 degrees.
Environment/pressure
Both were slightly better at home. Judge had a 1.218 OPS at Yankee Stadium compared to a 1.106 OPS mark on the road, while Ohtani was at 1.091 at Dodger Stadium and .985 on the road.
Judge was better with runners in scoring position with a 1.219 OPS compared to Ohtani’s .905 mark.
Judge thrived the most early in games — with a 1.288 OPS in the first three innings, 1.061 in the middle three innings and 1.041 in the last three innings. Ohtani was at his worst early in games, with a .972 OPS in the first three innings, 1.128 in the middle three and 1.053 in the final three.
Playoffs
Now, let’s zoom in on how each has fared this postseason entering the World Series.
Judge has a .161/.317/.387 slash line with a .704 OPS, two homers and 6 RBIs.
Ohtani has a .286/.434/.500 slash line with a .934 OPS, three homers and 10 RBIs.
Clearly, Ohtani enters the hotter hitter. Will that end up being the biggest difference? Or will something else emerge as an X factor?
