Pennsylvania could be the «tipping point» in the 2024 presidential election, according to electoral and polling analysis, and as the race tightens, CNN pondered whether Vice President Kamala Harris’ choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro might be a determinative factor in her performance in the state.
CNN’s Harry Enten described the «tightening race in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania,» explaining how the state is pivotal to the outcome of the race. He also pointed out Shapiro’s 59% approval rating in the state.
«The bottom line is if Kamala Harris loses in the state of Pennsylvania and that is the tipping point state as Mr. [John] Berman put it, the state that put Donald Trump over the top in the electoral college, there are going to be some real questions as to whether Kamala Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro given how popular he is in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania,» he said. «Could she have been a winner if she had chosen him instead of Tim Walz? We don’t know the answer to that question, we don’t know who is going to win the state of Pennsylvania, but it’s certainly a question that at this particular moment, with the Pennsylvania polls getting tighter and tighter and tighter, that I am certainly asking.»
LOCAL PENNSYLVANIA REPORTERS WERE TOLD BY HARRIS CAMPAIGN TO ‘NOT DISRUPT’ TIM WALZ EVENT
Harry Enten analyzes presidential polling. (CNN)
Enten also pointed out polls from a month ago to now, which have seen tightening margins as Harris loses her lead in Pennsylvania.
«A month ago when you looked at the polls, New York Times +4 Harris, +3 Quinnipiac for Harris, Franklin & Marshall +3 for Harris, but look at polls that have come out over the last week or so and what do we see? We see a much tighter race, we see a tie in the CBS/YouGov poll, we see a tie in the CNN SSRS poll,» he said.
Betting favorites with Harris taking Pennsylvania showed the vice president winning 270 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 268, but if Trump were to win the commonwealth, that would put him at 287 electoral votes to Harris’ 251.
«This to me is part of an emerging pattern which in a very pivotal state,» he said of the data. «What we saw was a small Harris lead, but within the margin of error, becoming a race that is way, way, way too close to call at this particular point. One that is even.»
