Opening statements have just begun in the trial of Sean ‘Diddy‘ Combs, yet the case against the multi-millionaire hip-hop superstar may already have been won… or lost.
For it all comes down to the jury.
From a pool of 150 potential jurors, the judge, defense team and federal prosecutors have selected 12 people (and six alternates should one of the active jurors become, for whatever reason, incapable of fulfilling their obligations).
These few will be tasked with deciding Combs’s fate.
Even the most skilled and experienced trial lawyer in the world cannot predict what this panel of Americans will decide or how the evidence may sway them – but it was once my job to attempt to do just that.
Before launching my television career, I was a consultant for trial attorneys. After earning my Ph.D with emphases in clinical and medical psychology, I did a year’s post-doctoral fellowship in forensic psychology and then co-founded a ‘trial science’ company, called Courtroom Sciences, Inc (CSI).
My past life even inspired the TV legal drama Bull, which ran for six seasons on CBS.
We specialized in advising lawyers on, among other things, selecting jurors for a trial and then making the most effective arguments to win over those individuals.
Opening statements have just begun in the trial of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs, yet the case against the multi-millionaire hip-hop superstar may already have been won… or lost. (above, sketches show Combs’ defense attorney Teny Geragos on Monday)
Even the most skilled and experienced trial lawyer in the world cannot predict what this panel of Americans will decide or how the evidence may sway them – but it was once my job to attempt to do just that.
Prior to jury selection, we’d stage mock trials and test the effectiveness of potential expert witnesses and novel arguments before mock juries.
After jury selection, we’d often create so-called ‘mirror juries.’ If the actual jury was composed of seven women and five men of a certain description, we’d hire seven women and five men closely matching their profiles. If one of the jurors was a 42-year-old woman with two years of college education, a husband working in a factory, two kids, a barking dog, and they were Baptists, we’d hire another woman with that exact description to sit in the gallery every day, all day, and hear the same evidence.
Every evening, we’d speak to that woman to gauge how she was reacting to the events of the day – and feed that information back to the attorneys.
The Combs’s jury is composed of eight men and four women with ages ranging from 30 to 75 years and racial backgrounds as diverse as white, black, Hispanic and Asian.
At least one of the female jurors is a 42-year-old with two children. Another panelist is a 41-year-old black man with a daughter.
How will they react to some of the most shocking and salacious evidence in this case?
The judge has admitted video evidence to be shown at trial that appears to show Combs viciously hitting and kicking his girlfriend, Cassandra Ventura, during a 2016 altercation in the hallway of a California hotel. Ventura – now married and currently pregnant – is set to testify.
That’s a particular damning piece of evidence, no doubt.
But will someone with a young daughter be more or less judgmental about seeing someone else’s daughter allegedly victimized?
Well, that depends. Believe it or not, some jurors – regardless of their life experiences – may be more open than others to considering the defense team’s framing of the alleged attack.
While I have not done all the empirical research necessary to understand this case, I would expect Combs’s defense team to seek to excuse this type of behavior and appeal to certain members of the jury.
Believe it or not, some jurors – regardless of their life experiences – may be more open than others to considering the defense team’s framing of the alleged attack on Ventura (left).
They’re likely targeting the jurors who they believe to have a ‘strong self-image,’ also commonly referred to as an ‘internal locus of control.’
These are people who believe that they have control over events in their lives. For example, the person who does poorly on a test and says, ‘I performed poorly because I wasn’t prepared’ likely exhibits an ‘internal locus of control.’
Conversely, someone who does poorly on a test and thinks, ‘That test was too difficult, that’s why I didn’t do well,’ is likely someone with an ‘external locus of control.’
Those with an internal locus of control would be most likely to believe that if someone lived through a deeply unpleasant or even traumatic event, then it was likely – at least in part – their own fault, as they tend to look first to themselves regarding the events which occur in their lives. And they tend to hold others to the same standard.
That is not the same as ‘victim blaming’ but in extreme situations can appear close to it. They made hold the plantiff partly responsible for their association with Combs and the subsequent alleged abuse.
These jurors may also be easier to convince that sex with Combs was consensual or that Combs is being targeted because he’s famous. Whereas an individual with an ‘external locus of control’ may be more likely to see Combs as the sole contributor to the situation
Indeed, the defense’s opening statement suggests this approach.
On Monday, defense lawyer Teny Geragos told the jury that the alleged victims in this case are ‘capable, strong, adult women,’ and that each got something from being in a relationship with Combs.
‘These adult, capable women will have to take on the same level of responsibility (as Combs),’ said in opening statements. ‘When any person makes an adult choice, that is a free choice. A free choice had pros, it has cons. They made free choices every single day for years.’
That argument may seem absurd to you or me, but we’re not the ones who will decide on Combs’s guilt or innocence.
And, what’s more, the defense team does not need to convince all 12 jurors.
The judge has admitted video evidence to be shown at trial that appears to show Combs viciously hitting and kicking his girlfriend, Cassandra Ventura (above), during a 2016 altercation in the hallway of a California hotel. Ventura – now married and currently pregnant – is set to testify.
They only need to win over one person, who will stand their ground and oppose a guilty sentence.
When a jury cannot reach a unanimous verdict, it is called a hung jury and the prosecution is left with two choices: re-try the case or abandon it.
If prosecutors do retry the case, the defense will know their evidence, giving them a significant advantage, allowing them to prepare even better the second time around.
But despite all these considerations, the jury system exists for a reason.
While no legal system is perfect, I believe that juries tend to get it right. Now, all that we can do is sit back and trust in the legal process.
