The number of people without access to clean drinking water could jump by three billion by 2050, a study tracking the spread of toxic pollution into waterways has warned.
According to the World Bank, some two billion people across the globe do not have access to clean water. But a modelling study published in Nature Communications this week suggests figures could “more than double” in the next 26 years – mainly due to nitrogen pollution.
“Our results stress the urgent need to address water quality in future water management policies,” the paper said, adding that central Europe, Africa, southern China, and North America will be worst hit.
The study – by researchers in Germany and the Netherlands – combined data on water scarcity and pollution levels, to project “clean water scarcity” over the coming decades.
They found the number of river sub-basins with high levels of contamination may surge from around 2,500, to more than 3,000 by 2050. This jump is equivalent to an extra 40 million kilometres squared of catchment area, and will affect some three billion people.
Although there are several hotspots, “severe” pollution will exacerbate clean water shortages most drastically in Africa. In 2010, 27 per cent of the continent’s population lived in regions reliant on scarce supplies – by 2050, this will rise to 88 per cent without intervention. Even in a best case scenario, clean water scarcity will still affect 41 per cent of people in Africa.
Worldwide, nitrogen is responsible for close to 90 per cent of the pollution in water supplies, the researchers warned.
As a critical component of plant growth, it is included in most fertilisers to boost production – yet overuse is a major problem for people and the environment.
“Nitrogen pollution can lead to harmful algal blooms in surface water, which produce toxins that contaminate drinking water and cause health issues in humans, such as liver damage, diarrhoea and neurological problems,” Wang Mengru, the lead author of the study, told the South China Morning Post.
“This will reduce the amount of clean water that can be safely supplied to nature and humans, leading to higher levels of water scarcity.”
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