Florida‘s hurricane center has predicted that Hurricane Rafael is ‘likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions’ over the next few days.
Rafael, currently a Category 2 hurricane, is trekking deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on a northwestward path toward Texas.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami stated that the storm ‘remains a powerful compact hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico,’ generating swells that will cause the dangerous surf and rip current conditions off the Florida coast.
‘Southwesterly winds feeding into Hurricane Rafael are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including waters near Key West, Florida,’ NHC stated.
Forecast models predict a significant shift in the Rafael’s path, decreasing its chances of smashing into the US – but a likely path is still unclear.
The NHC shows the storm will be its closest to Texas by Sunday and likely take a sharp motion south and move onto Tabasco, but noted there’s ‘above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael.’
But what is clear is that Rafael has lost some steam after barreling over Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday, bringing bringing torrential rain and strong winds that reached 105 mph that knocked out the entire country’s power grid.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami issued a Hurricane Rafael advisory Friday, saying the storm will generate swells that will ‘likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions’
‘For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael will see some fluctuations in intensity today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should continue through the weekend,’ shared the NHC.
The unpredictable path has changed dramatically this week.
Spaghetti models – so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – on Tuesday showed Rafael possibly reaching Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana by Saturday.
And on Wednesday, the NHC issued an alert for tropical storm conditions in the Florida Keys and warned locals to secure loose outdoor objects due to strong winds and flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists then said Thursday that the probability of it making landfall in the US is ‘extremely low.’
Friday’s forecast, however, revealed the US will likely be spared – as of now.
Models released today show one path to Florida, which has the lowest chances, but NHC’s update showed that Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.’
‘Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael,’ the agency continued.
‘Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
‘These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.’
The storm’s path has been very unpredictable, but NHC believes it will move closer to Texas then take a sharp path south toward Mexico
Models released today show one path to Florida, which has the lowest chances, but NHC’s update showed that Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days’
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, but it is very rare for hurricanes to hit the US in November.
That is due to it being the last month of the season, and favorable conditions for tropical storm formation have decreased.
A total of 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the US since record keeping began in 1851, and of those, only four hit in November.
The most recent one – Hurricane Nicole – hit Florida in November 2022. Before that, the US hadn’t seen a November hurricane since Katie in 1985.
However, Rafael is the strongest hurricane to move through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009.
Nine storms – including Rafael – have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly high ocean temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing in May to discuss the preseason outlook, forecasting 25 named storms that could result in up to 13 hurricanes.
And while we are nearing the end of the season, NHC said last month that three more storms could form in the Atlantic and Rafael was the first to appear.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: ‘We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. It doesn’t happen very often, but the very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.’
