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As Riyadh prepares to host US-Ukraine talks on how to end Russia’s war, analysts tell Euronews how Saudi Arabia became a diplomatic heavyweight.
ADVERTISEMENTFour years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has established itself as an unexpected but effective mediator between the warring nations.
Having long been an Arab powerhouse due to its oil wealth, booming economy, and political stability in a troubled region, it is emerging as a major global diplomatic player.
On Monday, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will welcome Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Riyadh, where talks between officials from Washington and Kyiv will take place over a peace framework to end the war.
It will be the first high-level meeting of the US and Ukraine since the heated argument between Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month.
These talks come just weeks after Riyadh hosted top US and Russian officials for their most extensive engagement since Russia started its war in February 2022. As part of the diplomatic thaw, Washington and Moscow agreed to work together to end the conflict.
So how has Saudi Arabia positioned itself as a power broker in international diplomacy?
Crude power
Oil diplomacy offers a partial explanation. Along with the US and Russia, Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s dominant crude oil producers.
In fact, Riyadh was at the forefront of a recent agreement by the eight OPEC+ countries to start increasing crude oil output from April 2025, a move that has contributed to prices falling this week — and fulfilled a request by Trump.
On 24 January, Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos that cutting oil prices could bring about the end of war in Ukraine, and said he would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to take action.
«Right now the price is high enough that that war will continue,» Trump told Davos. «You gotta bring down the oil price and end the war.»
The members of OPEC+ are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
Given that Russia was part of this decision, it is difficult to imagine that Moscow expects the lower price of oil to harm its own interests, said Raffaele Marchetti, a professor of International Relations at the LUISS University of Rome.
«It’s too simplistic to think in term of raw material cost as a leverage to weaken Russia,» he told Euronews.
«We see an engagement among Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US to find a new world balance using a common good (oil) of their exclusive circle with broader political goals”.
Big security spender
Saudi Arabia has a central role in the Middle East, from decision making and post-war rebuilding in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the containment of Iran and its proxies.
ADVERTISEMENTIn the early 2000s, the Saudi monarchy had been threatened and almost destabilised by Islamic fundamentalist terrorism — led by Osama bin Laden — that culminated in the 11 September 2011 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York. Since then, Saudi Arabia has invested massively in its security policies, and in projecting its rising strength externally.
In light of the US invasion of Iraq, the failure of the Israel-Palestine peace process (before 7 October 2023) and the destructive civil war in Syria, Saudi Arabia’s stature has steadily grown, and it is the only power in the region that is capable of competing with Israel, Iran and Turkey.
«The global evolution of the Arab World provoked a power shift from Egypt, Syria and Iraq to the Gulf countries,» said Yves Aubin de la Messuzière, France’s former ambassador to Tunisia and an expert on the wider region.
«Saudi Arabia has all the power factors like its economic weight, an extended territory, 30 million inhabitants, and the religious leadership over the global Sunni community.»
ADVERTISEMENTRiyadh announced last month that it would increase its defence spending to nearly 75 billion euros this year, up nearly 3 billion euros on last year’s outlay.
This allocation puts its military spending at 7.1% of GDP, and means it is one of the top five countries both in terms of relative and absolute expenditure on defence.
Lasting international recognition
Saudi Arabia’s longstanding balancing act that has seen it develop and maintain strong relations with different blocs from the GCC to BRICS, as well as major allies such as the US, is how it came to play the role of mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
«For any country, being the host venue of meaningful international talks has implicit political added values, like it has been traditionally in the case of Switzerland», says Luigi Narbone, who was Ambassador, Head of the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, and non-resident EU Ambassador to Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
ADVERTISEMENT“We should not underestimate this symbolic element (of Riyadh hosting talks). It’s clear that Saudi Arabia is looking for a definitive and lasting international recognition,» he told Euronews.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s network of bilateral relations makes it an appealing choice when it comes to global diplomacy, according to Michael Harris, an analyst from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) — a UK-based think tank.
“They (the US and Russia) met in Saudi Arabia because how many countries would feel comfortable to be the hosts for them?» he told Euronews.
«Also, there is a need for Trump to engage the Saudis anyway. And it’s too early for any U.S. officials to be going to Russia. It’s presumably the same in terms of Russia going anywhere in Europe for the US,» Harris added.
ADVERTISEMENTSaudi Arabia maintains a cordial relationship with Russia despite its rivalry with Iran, and, at the same time, is a beacon of stability in a fractured and crisis-stricken Middle East.
The Palestinian question
Washington would like Riyadh to sign the so-called Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel. Trump’s most significant foreign policy achievement from his first term was hosting the signing of a series of normalisation agreements under the accords between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in September 2020.
Yet Saudi Arabia refuses to sign the Abraham Accords without the creation of a Palestinian state.
«While young Prince Mohammed bin Salman has in principle a pragmatic political approach, the 89-year-old ruler King Salman Al Saud is extremely sensible to the Palestinian cause, especially for religious reasons,» said de la Messuzière.
ADVERTISEMENTWhat’s more, despite its authoritarian monarchic system, the Saudi regime is vigilant to any backlash or agitation from its citizens when it comes to major political decisions.
«The Saudi population is mostly young and highly sensitive to the Palestinian question,» de la Messuzière added.
