All the talk before the Betfred Derby has been about City of Troy, last year’s champion two-year-old, on a retrieval mission of some magnitude after a worse-than-dismal effort in the 2,000 Guineas but victory on Saturday can go to a colt so under the radar that he has barely featured in any Derby conversation.
It is generally acknowledged that the 245th running of the colts’ classic is one of the most open in recent memory and, as such, it is ripe for an upset. Indeed even if City of Troy, the uneasy but likely favourite, were to win, many would still be surprised.
If Aidan O’Brien can give us all a deja-vu of Auguste Rodin, who got up off the proverbial mat in the Guineas to win at Epsom 12 months ago, then he is beyond genius. City of Troy may have been a decent sized, brilliantly accomplished two-year-old with a juvenile rating only bettered this century by Frankel, but he did not appear to have grown over the winter, others had overtaken him in the all-round good-looks department and, to be honest, he looked a bit small.
There is a certain expectation and excitement when the previous year’s champion juvenile starts out on his Classic season at three but when looks were combined with performance it was a bit like getting a lump of coal in your Christmas stocking when you were expecting diamonds..
Auguste Rodin was a different kettle of fish in that he looked the part. Only O’Brien could possibly turn this one around and, of the Ballydoyle trio, I prefer his more workmanlike, less flash stablemate Los Angeles who is one of only two unbeaten colts in the race, the other being Richard Hannon’s maiden winner Voyage for whom it is a big ask.
The other trials came and went and were we much clearer about the likely result on the Downs? Of course, until about 4.40pm on Saturday, we can only have a vague idea of which trial we think was the most relevant particularly as the most obviously smart trial winner, Economics, sits this out back home in Newmarket.
If Group One Classic form is the best there is then Roger Teal, who used to watch the race over the rail two furlongs after the start when he was an Epsom stablelad, has an outstanding chance with French Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini. He has gears aplenty and, though he has never run over further than a mile, he is bred to stay a mile and a half and has the potential to give Irish rising star of the riding ranks, Dylan Browne McMonagle, a dream first ride at Epsom.
It is not necessarily a bad thing that people are wondering if there is too much speed for the speed/stamina equation because a Derby winner should have it in abundance. His owner-breeder David Fish is no stranger to Derby success: as a member of the Royal Ascot Racing Club he owned a tail-hair of 2005 winner Motivator, still the only syndicate-owned winner of the sport’s blue riband.
Ancient Wisdom was six lengths back in second in the Dante and, even though he had a good blow that day, Charlie Appleby will have to have turned him round in 16 days, not impossible but not easy either. Technically, until his two stablemates fell by the wayside, he would have been Godolphin’s third string (but so was Adayar, the 2021 winner). Now he is their only runner.
Ambiente Friendly gives James Fashawe and weighing room veteran Rab Havlin, 50, an outstanding chance if you take his last start, the Lingfield trial, in isolation. He came clear and won in a good time. The third, who he beat nearly eight lengths, has since come out and won at Goodwood so the form of that race is stacking up. He gets the trip and, after 40 years in racing, can cap it all for eccentric 91-year-old owner Bill Gredley.
Ralph Beckett’s Macduff is an interesting candidate. He was second in the Sandown trial, the horse who beat him, Arabian Crown, met with a set-back so he does not have to beat him and he apparently does not do much at home but he should come on for the step up in trip.
However Lambourn trainer Owen Burrows, who was with Sir Michael Stoute when he had Workforce, decided to skip all the trials with Deira Mile, a decent two-year-old who finished in front of Dancing Gemini in the Futurity last year, to win his maiden at Windsor by four lengths in April and he can win this year’s Derby.
That might have been an ordinary race but the revelation came with this colt when he was one of four horses to go to Epsom for a canter round the course last week and he looked the pick of them. He was, said jockey Jim Crowley, a different horse from Windsor. In the world in which we now live, the most potent weapons are those that evade the radar.
