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How Wisconsin’s New Maps Could Help Biden

by Marko Florentino
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This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email transcripts@nytimes.com with any questions.

astead w. herndon

This is cute.

astead w. herndon

About two weeks ago, my colleague, Anna, and I made our way to Lodi, Wisconsin, a small town of about 3,000 people just north of Madison.

speaker 1

Home of Susie. Who’s Susie?

astead w. herndon

Yeah. Susie the duck.

astead w. herndon

When we got there, we walked down Main Street past the florist, a sausage and meat market, and the antique store until we crossed a bridge with a metal archway dedicated to Susie the duck.

astead w. herndon

In 1948, a country mallard settled down in downtown Lodi. She laid her eggs in a masonry flower basket, endearing herself to locals and visitors who observed her brood. Named “Susie” by police chief Will Breuning’s granddaughter, our mascot’s fame spread.

Susie faithfully returned to her flower basket, raising two clutches of eggs each year and attracting national media attention. Over the years, many Susie’s have nested in this basket. Lodi still hosts an annual Susie the Duck Festival celebrating the famous fowl who rests in the heart of Lodi.

speaker 1

That’s pretty cute.

astead w. herndon

Yeah.

speaker 1

It’s also a nice way of saying “the duck died.”

astead w. herndon

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I was like, many Susies have come. I was like, oh. Oh.

speaker 1

We’re all Susie.

astead w. herndon

Susie is one draw to Lodi, which I’ve now learned is how you pronounce it. But the other one is how the town votes. Lodi is in Columbia County, Wisconsin, a frequent bellwether in this critical battleground state. In 2008 and 2012, the county voted for Obama. In 2016, it went for Trump.

And in 2020, it did again, but by just 517 votes — or, in other words, the type of close election that Wisconsinites have come to expect. In fact, four out of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin have come down to less than a percentage point. And this year is expected to be similarly close.

But we’re actually here for a different reason — the maps. After more than a decade of gerrymandered state legislative districts that have overwhelmingly favored Republicans, newer, fairer maps were adopted earlier this year, breathing new life into state Democrats in the process. So, after months of hearing about President Biden’s problems motivating the Democratic base, I wanted to come to Wisconsin to check in on something that is driving enthusiasm further down the ballot in a state that Democrats must win.

Today, how Wisconsin’s fresh maps have upended the state’s political terrain and why that could be welcome news for President Biden come November. From “The New York Times,” I’m Astead Herndon. This is “The Run-Up.”

So here’s the story about how the new maps in Wisconsin came to be. For more than a decade, and as we explored in one of the early episodes of “The Run-Up,” Wisconsin’s legislative maps have been rather creative.

ben wikler

All these different parts of the state, they would draw these wonky, weird lines. There was the T-Rex district that looked like a little dinosaur where the mouth of the dinosaur was the place where the Democrats lived.

astead w. herndon

That’s the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, Ben Wikler.

ben wikler

The Z district in Waukesha County that looked like the letter Z, because it was drawn to bring all the Democrats together and prevent them from electing two state representatives, which is what they’d done right before those maps came in.

astead w. herndon

This was not your normal political gerrymander. Wisconsin’s new maps were so one-sided that even though the state has a pretty equal share of Democrats and Republicans, Republicans locked in large majorities in the state assembly and senate, which they used to block public health care expansion and restrict abortion access.

ben wikler

In Wisconsin, no matter what the government does, we always know exactly who’s going to control the state legislature here, which means the power of the purse and the power to write laws. This year is when all that starts to change.

[crowd chanting «janet»]
archived recording 1

Well, Wisconsin, guess what? We did it. We did it.

astead w. herndon

That all started to change when liberals rallied to win an important state Supreme Court race.

archived recording 2

Wisconsin voters have made their voices heard.

[CHEERING]

They’ve chosen to reject partisan extremism in this state.

astead w. herndon

Tipping the balance toward progressive justices.

ben wikler

And in that moment, it became clear that democracy could actually be reborn in our state.

astead w. herndon

And with that new majority, the state supreme court quickly moved to call the legislative maps “unconstitutional” and order new ones. So in January of this year, the state’s Democratic governor, Tony Evers, drew new maps. Then, they were approved by Republicans in the legislature.

archived recording(tony evers)

Today is a day that, I believe, will define our state’s future.

astead w. herndon

And Evers signed them into law in February.

ben wikler

We have a once-in-a-generation Big Bang moment to go from near supermajorities in both legislative chambers to a chance to win our state assembly majority and move towards a senate majority over the next two cycles.

astead w. herndon

Immediately, the new maps opened opportunities for Democrats across the state, in towns like Eau Clare and Appleton, but also in rural areas too.

ben wikler

Suddenly, they’re purple, just like the actual populace is. And that means in northwest, southeast, central Wisconsin, you could have these patches of blue open up where right now it’s a sea of red.

astead w. herndon

Which is the reason I came to Lodi.

ben wikler

Lodi and the 14th Senate District is essential to ever getting a Democratic majority in the state senate.

astead w. herndon

Because, despite all the excitement about what these new maps could mean for Democrats, there’s still a pretty significant political challenge here. For years, Democrats have lost ground in rural communities, both in Wisconsin and across the country, which has helped fuel the perception that the party is out of touch.

astead w. herndon

Hi, how are you? Astead, nice to meet you.

sarah keyeski

It’s nice to meet you.

astead w. herndon

But I’m not sure that description fits Sarah Keyeski, the first time political candidate Democrats recruited to run in the all-important, newly-competitive 14th Senate District in Lodi.

astead w. herndon

How’s it going?

sarah keyeski

I’m wildly nervous, but I’m really excited —

astead w. herndon

No, don’t be. Don’t be. We’re just here to hang out.

sarah keyeski

And this.

astead w. herndon

No, we just have — we just have to bring the fancy mic so we can hear you well. Thank you for —

astead w. herndon

Sarah is the daughter of a dairy farmer, mom of six. She also is a mental health counselor. We actually talked to her in her therapy office.

astead w. herndon

— as someone who does therapy on Zoom, this is much better.

sarah keyeski

Yes. Yes. I do —

astead w. herndon

We share more in this room.

astead w. herndon

Sarah grew up in a town of about 800 people not too far from Lodi.

sarah keyeski

My graduating class was about 49 people. Grew up on a dairy farm there and with four siblings. And the community was really richly rural. We were very steeped into our Lutheran background, so there was a lot of neighbors that went to the same church, a small little church up on a hill. And so we just did a lot with that.

astead w. herndon

After spending time in some bigger cities, she moved here to raise her family and started counseling in Lodi.

sarah keyeski

And I really didn’t know if it would work because it’s such a small town, but I really believe in having people have access, right, to what they need for care. And so I opened this practice in 2018 and was fortunate enough that it was successful.

astead w. herndon

I wanted to understand how Sarah went from therapist to political candidate, why Democrats often struggle in rural communities, and how she plans to pitch herself in a race of such critical importance. Turns out, her entry to politics was recent.

sarah keyeski

Politics became something on my radar for me personally less than nine months ago.

astead w. herndon

Wow.

sarah keyeski

Yeah. So during COVID, being a therapist ended up being very heavy, I would say. It was —

astead w. herndon

I’m surprised it “ended up.” I mean, I imagined it as a heavy profession.

sarah keyeski

You know, I’ve done it for so long that I find it very invigorating. I love doing what I do. But it was the first time that I really felt drained — deeply drained — by the work I was doing. And I wasn’t sure how to manage that, honestly.

And so, as I’ve said to people, nobody wants a depressed therapist. So I had to figure out, how do I take care of me? And for me, what I found along the way was a great quote and then a passion project, basically. The quote was “action is the antidote to despair,” by Joan Baez. And that really helped me to go, that’s what I need to do is I need to activate this distress I have into something that feels meaningful.

astead w. herndon

Sarah took that Joan Baez inspiration and helped start a nonprofit focused on a day of service in Lodi.

sarah keyeski

It was called Lift Lodi. And I just said, hey, who would be willing to volunteer? Let’s work on uplifting our community by putting bark under the swingsets. It was cleaning the windows of the library. It was raking a neighbor’s lawn — doing that kind of stuff. Because service, I think, is really empowering, and it gives us a sense of something bigger than ourselves. It’s very healing.

astead w. herndon

Lift Lodi is a hit in town. And after that, a neighbor encouraged her to run for state assembly, which, at the, time was a really tough race to win.

sarah keyeski

They said, you know what’ll help is you’ll get your name on the ballot — really, really, really hard to win, but you can help upticket. And you can get a message out there — a progressive message about what really matters.

astead w. herndon

But, as we now know, the maps changed. And with it, Lodi and the surrounding areas weren’t quite as hard for Democrats to win anymore, which, for most political candidates, would have been incredible news.

sarah keyeski

Those new maps changed the district that I was in from a plus-18 Republican to a plus-16 Democrat. And honestly, that —

it lost some of its pull for me because I thought then, well, other people are going to be willing to run because you can get that seat. And I had heard that there was somebody that was really interested in running, and so there’d be a primary. And I was really interested in not necessarily needing to do that. And so I was actually contemplating and talking to people about maybe bowing out and just endorsing that person.

astead w. herndon

And to be clear, the part of it that was less appealing to you was that you — was what?

sarah keyeski

Well —

astead w. herndon

You didn’t want to run against other Democrats?

sarah keyeski

Not really. I thought that seems like a little bit of a waste of resources. I also thought the new map, the district was a little less rural. And for me, rural is my heart. And so while I love the other area, it just wasn’t as compelling to me.

I didn’t feel like I was as needed. I have an energy that if I’m passionate about something, I can do lots. But if I’m not passionate about it, like, my heart’s not in it. And so I kind of just didn’t feel like my heart was as in it.

astead w. herndon

Just when she was thinking about getting out of the race —

sarah keyeski

I got a call from two senators.

astead w. herndon

Her phone rang.

sarah keyeski

And I talked to them, and I said to them, I said, I love that you’re asking me. I said, but I need to know why and the fact that I don’t have to change, because I don’t want to change. I want to be able to be myself.

I don’t want to be a cookie-cutter politician. I’m too old to be other than who I am. And they said, no. Sarah, that’s actually what we want. We want you to just be you. We believe that you have the right care for your community. And then we talked about, well, some of the things that are important to me, and what it would mean to be a senator, and having then maybe being able to flip the Senate in 2026, and the fact that maybe, then, we could have universal meals for children for in-school, maybe we could have better access to mental health services, maybe we could have — and all of a sudden, everything in me felt like, OK, if this is what I’m needed to do now, this is what I’ll do, because it feels that important.

astead w. herndon

You mentioned the issues that got you motivated. I see through-line between starting the things like the nonprofit. I guess considering how recently your lens turned to politics, How did you go about finding policy issues that you most cared about? And what are the specific ones that you would say your campaign is housed in?

sarah keyeski

Well, part of it is reflection. And I’ll say when I started my practice, one of the things I did was what’s called a values assessment. And when I did that, the values that came to the surface were contribution, compassion, and moral courage. And so shifting into politics, then, is really about compassion.

Well, compassion, to me, is all about, how do we serve one another? How do we make sure that the least of those are served well? So Medicaid expansion, for example, is really important to me — to make sure that everybody has access to health care, improve mental health care access. Rural economies are really important to me — making sure that we have small businesses that are supported in our rural communities.

They are the life of a town. Public school funding is hugely important. Women have the right to make decisions about their body and have autonomy for their health care decisions. So reproductive rights are important. So I guess all of those things are just things that are important. And then they translate, ultimately, into legislation.

astead w. herndon

How is the brand of the Democratic Party in rural communities, if you think about Wisconsin? We know through numbers, it’s become increasingly urban of a party. There’s been less and less Democrats representing rural communities. And the bottom has kind of fallen off for some of the folks when you look at the national level. When you say, “I’m a Democrat,” and you’re in a place that’s overwhelmingly Republican, what’s the response?

sarah keyeski

It’s not necessarily positive. But I think if I can connect with the things, value-wise, that are important, right, making sure that we support one another, making sure that there’s not too much government interference, like having a say over our bodies, making sure that we support small businesses so that we can uplift our communities.

astead w. herndon

But can you diagnose for me — what do you think went wrong for Democrats in rural communities? Because they used to do better in places like Wisconsin.

sarah keyeski

Yeah. I think that there’s a lot of disinformation, I think, although I think there is also some truth to there’s been an elite class, if you will, that they’ll talk about that I don’t think is necessarily inaccurate either. So I think it has been maybe leaned away from some of those central ideals. But I also think more of it is disinformation, honestly.

astead w. herndon

I hear you. I remember talking to Wisconsin Democrats over the last eight years or so, and it was so defined by this feeling that when you looked at the Madisons, and Milwaukees, and surrounding areas, there was functionally growing into further and further apart from other parts of the state. I now see the possibility with these maps, and maybe that was so overblown — maybe the reason that there was such a bad split was because there were literally maps drawn so that people couldn’t have —

sarah keyeski

You would see that divide.

astead w. herndon

I guess I’m curious, how real do you think a state that has become politically known for its urban-rural kind of split, how real do you think that split is as someone who kind of sits at an intersection of some of those things?

sarah keyeski

Well, I live in a small town. I have a lot of small town friends. And I have a lot of Democrats as friends. So I know that there’s a lot of people in rural areas that share my same values. So I don’t think it’s nearly as clear-cut as what it looks like with the maps.

So I think it’s going to be very interesting. I think there’s a lot of purple. And I think some people that were historically maybe even red will probably lean toward something different this election.

astead w. herndon

It does feel like there’s a little energy among Democrats in the state now. But it’s not like we hear energy around this election broadly, you know? We travel across the country, specific to 2024, and so much of what we hear is the opposite.

It’s apathy. I don’t like the candidates. I don’t want to get involved. I want to actually ignore this race. And I know that there are ways that when you localize the issues, you can talk to people more specifically. But I guess I was just curious to flip it the other way for a second. Like, when you look nationally, like Donald Trump versus Joe Biden again, is it hard to create energy with such familiarity at the top of the ticket?

sarah keyeski

So I will say that I’m very clear that Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee is an imperfect person. And there are some things, particularly around Gaza, that are concerning to me. But I feel very good about what he’s done. I feel like he’s done such important work with the infrastructure bill, with the CHIPS and Science Act, that when I look at what he’s accomplished, to me, it’s kind of a no-brainer to say, oh, my gosh, let’s do more of that.

You have been incredible in that role. And the other day, I was listening to a woman who is a Native American, and she made a good point — she said, in our culture, we really respect elders. We respect that they have a knowledge from living a long life.

And I feel like, in some ways, we’re wanting sort of entertainment. But I think that is something that we really need to consider is this respect for this wisdom that is a through-line because of his experience, and because of his age, and life experience. And I think we can get beyond the numbers a bit and just see what he’s done, what he’s capable of doing, and who he is as a man, I feel really excited that he’s —

astead w. herndon

Is that what you hear when you talk to people?

sarah keyeski

That’s what I hear when I talk to myself. That’s what I share with other people.

astead w. herndon

I guess I’m asking, in the energy sense, in the community sense.

sarah keyeski

I would say that there’s some of that, right, in the Democratic Party. I would say, not globally, locally. But again, I think that’s the message that just needs to get out there, then.

And so it is about getting energized to present this other narrative that I think is valid. I think it’s really viable. So hopefully there will be more energizing of it with many of us bringing it to the forefront.

astead w. herndon

Yeah. Yeah.

sarah keyeski

Thanks for your time.

astead w. herndon

Thank you.

sarah keyeski

Thank you.

speaker 1

No, this was great.

sarah keyeski

I it ended up being OK.

speaker 1

No, of course. Of course.

astead w. herndon

After the break, we go door-to-door with Sarah to test just how far this down-ballot energy might extend. Also, the man behind the new maps — Wisconsin’s governor.

speaker 2

So we’re going to do —

speaker 3

And does anyone need a clipboard?

speaker 4

I do, please, and thank you.

speaker 2

I’ll give you this one, then.

[CHATTER]

astead w. herndon

As we were speaking with Sarah, a small group of volunteers gathered outside her office.

speaker 6

Are we all taking two sheets, or are we all taking one?

speaker 5

I took two. I think two is better.

astead w. herndon

The signature collection period for state senate candidates had just opened, and Sarah needed 400 signatures to get on the ballot.

speaker 2

How do people feel about braving the rain a little bit?

speaker 6

It’s fine. It’s not that many drops. They’re not very dense.

speaker 7

— bring ponchos so each person can have one.

astead w. herndon

These volunteers were eager to get started despite the winds and increasingly stormy skies.

speaker 1

Did you make that?

speaker 7

I did. Yeah. I did. I just —

speaker 1

Can you describe what it is for the audio?

speaker 7

So this is a map with the three assembly seats that make up the 14th senate seat with each of the townships, villages, and cities mapped out on it so that — because the maps have changed, not everybody knows which district they’re in. So when they say, I’m not in that district I can say, yes, you are. Right there.

astead w. herndon

We tagged along with Sarah.

sarah keyeski

Oh, my. Look at this weather. OK.

astead w. herndon

And walked up the street away from downtown Lodi into a pretty classic small town neighborhood.

astead w. herndon

This porch is so cool.

sarah keyeski

I love wraparound porches.

speaker 1

Amazing.

sarah keyeski

I love them.

astead w. herndon

Filled with old Victorian houses and sprawling yards.

[KNOCKING AT DOOR]

sarah keyeski

Hello, are you, David?

speaker 8

Yes, I am.

sarah keyeski

Hi, David. My name is Sarah Keyeski, and I’m running for local state senate District 14.

astead w. herndon

Most of these voters were Democrats who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. So I was interested in their support for Sarah, but also how they were thinking about the relationship between the seat she’s running for and the top of the ticket.

[GIGGLING]

speaker 9

God, what are you doing? I’m a hot mess.

astead w. herndon

The first person we asked was a familiar face for Sarah, her friend Stephanie.

sarah keyeski

If you would, would you please sign my —

astead w. herndon

And her son, Fred.

speaker 9

Oh, my gosh. I would love to.

speaker 1

Do you know what this is?

speaker 10

No.

speaker 1

It’s a microphone.

astead w. herndon

Who was very curious about our microphone.

speaker 10

Can I try?

speaker 1

Yeah, you want to try it?

astead w. herndon

Fred held the mic as we asked Stephanie about her vote.

speaker 9

Well, and the down-ballot is really the bottom line. And at least in my limited time as a voter, I feel like, is what has the most significant impact on my day-to-day — and especially as a parent, on my day-to-day life. It’s definitely the first time I’m not enthusiastic, especially around the presidential election.

astead w. herndon

Why is that?

speaker 9

I really liked Biden a while ago. And not that I don’t like him anymore, you know what I mean? But yeah, I think my struggle is a lot around foreign policy decisions being made.

astead w. herndon

Were you feeling better about Biden before the last six months post-October 7?

speaker 9

Yes, for sure. Yes. Yeah, for sure.

I never stood behind the ageist kind of perspective, because both candidates are old, right? Would I prefer to have a candidate that’s closer to my age as a millennial? For sure, right?

But it’s not the world we live in. So sometimes you have to navigate the world you live in. And prior to what happened six months ago, I wouldn’t say I was excited, but I was more accepting of it. So when we voted in the recent election, my husband and I, neither one of us voted for Biden, right?

We did the protest vote, essentially. Now, we will vote for Biden in the election. But I wanted to send a message that I did not think that the way he was handling US policy around Israel and Palestine was appropriate.

So that had a little bit of impact, I think, right? Biden talked to Netanyahu and came down a little more forcefully than he had in the past. So yeah, hopefully it does make a difference. But what I’m really excited about is my local elections, and who I’m voting for, and who I’m going to —

sarah keyeski

Who would that be? Who are you voting for?

speaker 9

Her name is Sarah Keyeski. She’s the best.

sarah keyeski

I love you. Yay. This is so — oh, my god, you guys. And your patience.

astead w. herndon

At this point, the storm was starting to set in.

sarah keyeski

Hi, there.

speaker 11

Don’t get blown away.

sarah keyeski

I know. I was looking for Diane.

astead w. herndon

Lucky for us, we met Dan and Diane.

speaker 11

Why don’t you just come in? I don’t want you blowing away.

astead w. herndon

A gracious couple who let us into their home to escape the weather.

speaker 11

Well, welcome to Wisconsin.

astead w. herndon

Thank you for welcoming us to your home. It’s so beautiful.

speaker 11

The old Victorian, you know?

sarah keyeski

Yes. I’m like, I don’t get to see these kind of houses very often, and now they’re inviting me in? I love it. Thank you.

speaker 11

Well, yeah.

sarah keyeski

If you don’t — yeah, so would you mind also signing nomination papers?

speaker 11

Would be glad to.

sarah keyeski

Thank you so much.

astead w. herndon

Have you all always been in this area?

speaker 12

Since 1979 been in the Lodi area. Yes. My kids went to school here. I raised them here. My late husband was the chief of police here. And I actually reconnected with someone I went to high school with at a class reunion, and we got married 12 years ago.

sarah keyeski

What a lovely story.

speaker 11

And I took her to the dark side.

speaker 12

He’s a retired firefighter and paramedic.

speaker 11

Yeah.

sarah keyeski

And you’re from Lodi?

speaker 11

No, I was actually from — I lived in a few different communities. So I worked for the city of Wauwatosa. And I had 32 years there. And I was teaching EMS for 37 years with the school system down in Milwaukee.

sarah keyeski

One of the things that’s been really important to me is first responder mental health.

speaker 11

It’s big.

sarah keyeski

It’s big. It is. And I’ve been talking to the chief of police a bit about that over the last couple of years. And then I’ve had some people that work EMS as clients, and I just feel like that’s an issue that is really not well-understood or addressed.

speaker 11

Probably not.

sarah keyeski

And so wanting —

speaker 11

Where it should be.

sarah keyeski

Yeah.

astead w. herndon

Can I ask a political question?

speaker 12

Yeah. Sure.

astead w. herndon

I’m curious just how you all feel about this election. Can you just describe if you think to November and election day, what’s the emotion that comes to your mind?

speaker 12

Wow, that’s a loaded question. I would have to say that I think I am afraid that the people in the United States today have forgotten our history, and what has happened in the years past, and what caused us to go into World War II. I’m not ashamed to say that I think Trump is a modern-day Hitler.

I think that he will take our country down a road, if he gets elected, that we don’t want to see. We experienced it once before, and I don’t ever want to see it happen again. And if he gets in again, I’m really afraid of what’s going to happen to this country.

astead w. herndon

Wisconsin holds such an important role, obviously, in the election. So I’m sure around you, there’s Trump supporters. I’m sure your friends, your people around you —

has it affected any personal relationships? Because you feel so strongly about the stakes here, I’m sure you also know people who love him.

speaker 12

We don’t talk about it.

speaker 11

It’s created a lot of problems with families. It’s created a lot of problems with neighbors. The society that we live in right now, I feel bad for the younger people because it’s a very hateful society. It’s all about me.

We’re fortunate — we have a couple, to answer your question, a couple neighbors that work well with us, but we really don’t get into those subject matters because we know who even our family members are, close ones that are on one side as opposed to the other. I don’t understand how women can vote for Trump because of his history.

And they do. He’s very forceful in how he presents himself. The biggest thing that bothers me in politics is even bigger than that. It has to do with age. We have two guys that are closing in on 80 years old. They’re running our country. Why?

Why can’t we get younger people in those positions? When I speak of younger, they have to be seasoned. They have to be somebody that has to be maybe, give or take 50, 60 years old that have visions for the future.

Do these older politicians have visions for the future or how much money that they put in their pockets? And I’m talking about both sides of that fence.

astead w. herndon

Does Biden’s age worry you as it worries him?

speaker 12

It worries me, because if something should happen to him in office, Kamala would come in as the next president. I don’t know that she’s totally qualified for it. But I think it is time for a woman to come into office.

I think when I look around the world, the number of female world leaders far surpasses what anyone would ever expect. And I think the United States is far behind in that aspect of things and giving women the credit that they’re due.

astead w. herndon

Could I just ask, what makes you unsure that she’s qualified?

speaker 12

Just listening to her — I can’t put a specific on it because I don’t honestly know all of her background. But when I listen to how she delivers her speeches, how she delivers responses to questions, it makes me wonder if she’s seasoned enough to take on that dynamic a role. And I could be totally wrong because she could come in and her confidence level could go from here off the roof.

And that’s what we need for any leader that would come in if something were to happen to Biden. I think she’s a good support person in the role that she’s in. I think she’s in a good position for what she’s got.

astead w. herndon

In 2016, remember people who — I went to Marquette in Milwaukee, so I have some friends who are still in Wisconsin — and I remember in 2016 people telling me, I don’t know about these polls. Things feel like Trump is kind of more popular here than people are saying.

And I remember in 2020 a kind of opposite feeling that people were feeling like, eh, I don’t know — like maybe he would lose. Do you have any feelings right now? Are people talking about the election? Do you have any sense from your neighbors or your community how people are feeling about the candidates?

speaker 11

I’m going to say “no” for this area right now. I haven’t even communicated with anybody about it. I was disappointed that President Biden chose to run again. Again, I’m the age guy.

I think we need Kamala — if even she ran herself with a different vice president person, whatever — however it would have played out. From what I’m seeing is it’s been silent. Neighbors don’t want to talk about it. Family members don’t want to talk about it. I hate to say it, my personal family members that are Trump supporters, they don’t hesitate.

Bring on the guns. Bring on this. Let’s fight them. Let’s get them. It’s that kind of concept.

speaker 12

My son is a Trump supporter.

speaker 11

Yeah, and mine was.

speaker 12

How could you be a Trump supporter? I don’t understand it. I raised you better than that.

speaker 11

But I mean, that’s —

astead w. herndon

[INAUDIBLE]

speaker 12

We have in the past, and we came to the conclusion that we were at an impasse. And there would have been no change. He was actually going out and buying weapons of mass destruction, I would say, because he was going to be ready. And I’m like, ready for what?

speaker 11

And that’s not us. In general, people have gotten this mentality.

astead w. herndon

And also — I’m sorry, I was going to try and cut it off. I was just going to thank you all. I think that was really helpful, partially, because we’re trying to ask people about how it feels locally for them, because as we travel, you can tell people tuning in to this election for the first time — and, to your point, some folks trying to block it out. And so this is helpful to hear how people are interacting with it within their families, within their communities.

speaker 11

I hope they’re smart like they were the last time.

And you know where I’m going with that. Again, I know I don’t like to see President Biden at his age being in a position. But —

speaker 12

I’d rather he was in office than Trump.

speaker 11

I would rather.

sarah keyeski

Absolutely. Well, thank you so much for your time. This has been just such a pleasure.

speaker 11

I hope —

sarah keyeski

So nice to meet you.

speaker 1

Nice to meet you all. Thank you.

speaker 12

Nice meeting you.

astead w. herndon

Thank you all so much.

[CHATTER]

astead w. herndon

Here’s what happened next. Those dark clouds turned into a massive thunderstorm, which temporarily trapped all of us in Dan and Diane’s house. Anna and I eventually got back to Madison, where we continued our checkup on Democratic enthusiasm, both at the top of the ticket and in down-ballot races, like Sarah’s, which led us to a conference room right across from the state capitol.

tony evers

You always walk around downtown with this —

astead w. herndon

Astead Herndon, nice to meet you.

astead w. herndon

Where we met Governor Tony Evers, the architect of the state’s new maps. Evers was first elected in 2018, narrowly defeating Scott Walker, the Wisconsin Republican who had been governor since 2011, and ushered in the era of conservative dominance, thanks, in large part, to the maps.

Thank you. We’re outside the capitol here. And one of the things we wanted to do is talk to you about the change in the legislative maps that happened. And for the last decade or so, it’s been so defined by the gerrymander that’s limited Democratic power in this state. Before we get to what’s changed now, can you just tell me what it was like to be a Democrat in Wisconsin at a time when I think the political sense was that Democrats couldn’t do much?

tony evers

Right. Yeah, it was kind of a dark time here in the state, because we have a progressive history here with Gaylord Nelson, and Proxmire, and lots of others that preceded me in these positions, whether it’s environment or anything else. And then suddenly, the right wave came through and took care of issues of let’s bust unions, let’s cut things for schools.

And, frankly, that just wasn’t consistent with my worldview and a lot of other people’s worldview. And we had to make that change — we have to be honest. We’re a purple state. We’re not a red state. We’re not a blue state. We’re a purple state.

And our legislative actions before I became governor, the actions of the executive branch certainly didn’t reflect that. And so we felt with the new maps, that we were in a much better place to do the work of the people.

astead w. herndon

What does it mean tangibly for these new maps? How will that translate to policy in this legislative session and going forward?

tony evers

It’s going to have a huge — I’m spending most of my time outside of being a governor raising money for these folks that are going to be running for office, for the first time, many of them. But yes, absolutely, I think we can get all sorts of things done with fair maps. We’ve never taken Medicaid expansion here in the state of Wisconsin.

I’m sure we’re, I think, maybe 10 states, the rest of them all real red, that have not taken that. And as a result of that, our health care system is nowhere near where we want it to be, especially for people that struggle mightily in this state. So that is just a good common sense issue that we can work on together, frankly, with more Democrats in the legislature. It’s a numbers thing.

astead w. herndon

Yeah. Yeah. It creates a different level of possibility for you as governor also. We were canvassing out in Lodi yesterday, and one of the things that came up was how the maps kind of reinforced the sense of urban-rural divide in the state, partially because it made Democrats unable to win in some of those rural areas that they now have opportunities for. But something that also came up was the kind of sense that the Democrats had a bad brand in those rural communities.

I wanted to know what you thought about that. Do you think the Democratic brand needs some work in maybe places where Democrats weren’t able to run or weren’t competitive previously?

tony evers

Yeah, and I guess some of that is with Democrats not having a great chance to represent those areas too, they’re hearing what Democrats in Milwaukee and Madison are talking about, which may, frankly, not have much to do with what’s happening in rural Wisconsin. So, yes, finding ways to deal with issues, whether it’s agriculture issues, whether it’s roads, or infrastructure, or things like that, yeah, that’s what we have to focus on.

And we have, frankly, since I’ve been governor. So I am jazzed about the future. We’re going to be able to get some things done that we, frankly, haven’t.

astead w. herndon

I wanted to talk about the national race, too, because Wisconsin, uniquely, obviously sits an important place in the electoral college, but also part of this Democratic blue wall that’s often talked about where the presidential race will likely come through Wisconsin, Michigan, where am I — Pennsylvania, right? Just as the governor, what do you think this race will come down to?

Biden won by 21,000 votes last time — four of the last six presidential races in Wisconsin won by less than a percentage point. Do you expect it to be that close again?

tony evers

Yes, absolutely. There’s nothing to lead me to believe otherwise. It’ll be a close race. And I think Biden will win, but, yeah, it’ll be close. We are a purple state.

And our purpleness will be evident. But I also believe that our work to create new maps and have new legislators and more Democratic legislators to, essentially, reflect what Wisconsin is, that will bring out more people and more Democrats. And I think that will help not only Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, I think it’ll help Tammy Baldwin and others that are running for office.

People are fired up. And what’s happening on the national stage, whether it’s about abortion or democracy, all those things play a role here in Wisconsin too. And so I think it’ll be a good turnout of people. It could be record-breaking.

astead w. herndon

It seems like we’re kind of flipping the script. We usually talk about the top of the ticket having the tail down-ballot. It sounds like you’re talking about down-ballot actually fueling the top.

tony evers

That’s our hope. What’s good for the gander, it’s good for the goose — or vice versa. I’m not sure which that is. But yeah, they help us. We help them.

astead w. herndon

We’ve seen Biden certainly come to Wisconsin and prioritize the state with the kind of recognition of its importance in November. I know it’s still six, seven months out, I know it’s going to be close here, but do any of this kind of polling, bad approval ratings, any of that type of what I think is consternation from national Democrats, how do you feel about the state where it might come down to, are Democrats in trouble?

speaker 1

No different than it has been the last two elections. No, I think with the president visiting here often, and vice president also, and, frankly, I think Donald Trump coming here often is OK too.

astead w. herndon

What do you mean?

tony evers

His stuff is way out there. And I think some of the things that he talks about, even moderate Republicans gasp. And so having him around is good.

astead w. herndon

You think the backlash helps you all?

tony evers

Sure.

astead w. herndon

And yesterday, we were out in Lodi, as I was saying —

tony evers

That’s the home of Susie the duck, by the way.

astead w. herndon

We learned about Susie the duck. We had no idea about Susie’s fame, but has a real crash course in Susie the duck yesterday.

tony evers

See? That’s Wisconsin.

astead w. herndon

But when we were on the doors, people were pretty, even though there was excitement about the down-ballot, as you mentioned, and the ability to elect new Democrats, we heard a lot about Biden’s age. We heard a lot about Gaza.

We heard a lot of folks saying they wish they had other options.

tony evers

Sur.

astead w. herndon

As the Democrat governor of the state, do you have to speak to those concerns directly?

tony evers

Sure. Age is always an issue. And I’m getting up there myself. But I’ll tell you — people might say, yeah, I’d like to have somebody younger. Well, that’s not a choice now.

Joe Biden is the age he is, and Trump’s the age he is, and they’re the two. The choices are stark differently. We are in a good place as a state to move forward. And let’s get it going. I will say Gaza is an issue. That’s going to continue to be an issue, obviously. There’s probably nothing more fluid than what’s going on in the Middle East.

And that will play out the way it plays out. I’m not saying that people shouldn’t have those concerns, because I do too. Everybody does. You see all these little kids getting murdered, frankly, is not a sight that anybody wants to see.

But at the end of the day, we’re voting for President of the United States. These are the two main candidates. And we got to get behind Biden, and we got to make sure that we have a Democratic legislature.

astead w. herndon

You talk about this being a purple state and the fact that you think Republicans and Trump actually aren’t reflecting that because of how extreme you’re saying they are. Do you have to keep Democrats in check too? Is there an opposite version here? Is there a version of the party that becomes too blue?

tony evers

Yeah. Well, yes, I think there is. And some Democrats may disagree with me on this, but I believe that, as a purple state, that we, and after this next election, the middle becomes much larger on both sides. And I think —

astead w. herndon

What do you mean by that?

tony evers

More moderates on both sides than ever before.

astead w. herndon

You think this November will produce that?

tony evers

Yes.

astead w. herndon

OK.

tony evers

No question in my mind. Are there really good liberals and some very good very conservative people? Yes, but most people live their lives in the middle. And that’s a reflection of a purple state.

And I think that means that we can get things accomplished. Small thing — marijuana, I believe strongly it will be legal here in the state of Wisconsin because there’s a whole bunch of moderate Republicans that feel that way and a whole bunch of moderate Democrats. So we can get that done. Is that a major thing? Absolutely not. But that’s just a good example of where I see the middle ground being a good place to be.

astead w. herndon

I mean, I see how you can make that case on the state level.

tony evers

Yeah.

astead w. herndon

Is it a problem that that’s a harder case to make on a national level?

tony evers

Oh, hell, yes. But I think deep down, most people are that way. I think what you hear many times on a national level is that, oh, my gosh, complaining about, why can’t people get together? Why can’t people do this together?

And it’s usually because the issues are so polarized that it doesn’t get accomplished. Well, frankly, there’s a lot of money at either end. So, yes, I think it’s harder at the national level. But let’s say this — let’s let the states show how we can do it.

astead w. herndon

The post-November with more moderates, do you use that veto power less? Do you expect to be — I was seeing how it’s been kind of synonymous with you kind of using that veto power because of the Republican legislature. As it changes, do you expect that to change?

tony evers

Yes. Has to. That’s not a great way to govern. Do I take that job seriously? Hell, yes. But no, I would anticipate vetoing minimal 50 percent of what I do now, and could be that it just never comes to my desk because the moderates will say, well, we’re not there.

astead w. herndon

The moderate future to come.

tony evers

Yeah.

astead w. herndon

Thank you. I really appreciate your time. Thank you so much, governor.

tony evers

Thank you. So you’ve heard about Susie the duck?

astead w. herndon

We have. We have. We literally —

speaker 1

The sole home of Susie the duck.

astead w. herndon

And we heard about the future, the Susie lineage.

speaker 1

The Susies to come. Yeah.

astead w. herndon

We did an episode about the gerrymander when we were first starting, partially because when I was in school, I remember it being such a formative thing I learned about political power. It was as kind of the protests were happening here during Walker, and I remember being in Milwaukee and just feeling like more than D or R, the things that I want to tell these people is that they’re written out of the process, you know? And so it became this thing I kind of got obsessed with. And so I like that we’re looping back around now to —

astead w. herndon

I mentioned this to the governor and a few people we met in Lodi, but because I spent so much time in Wisconsin during the days of the old maps, coming back now feels like a full circle moment — a story about political power, representation, and what’s possible when the political system more closely reflects the people. But there’s also an electoral takeaway. Here’s state Democratic Chair Ben Wikler again on how enthusiasm for state and local races in Wisconsin could make up for the lack of enthusiasm that some Democrats feel for President Biden.

ben wikler

Wisconsin elections are decided by a couple of votes per precinct around the state. And that means that if you have a candidate for state legislature who inspires a few hundred people to vote who might not otherwise have done so, that person could help tip the entire presidential election in the state that could tip the entire country.

And that means that this idea of reverse coattails, that a down-ballot candidate can help an up-ballot candidate win, it could really change the history of our country in Wisconsin in this year. This is not a year, if you read all the polls characterized by white hot levels of voter enthusiasm in the presidential race — but in state legislative races, there are a bunch of people who are furious at their Republican representatives.

And those voters now, if they get together, they can turn out and they can flip a district that flips the state. And that could flip the presidential race too.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead w. herndon

That’s “The Run-Up” for Thursday, May 2, 2024. Now, the rundown. We’re into week three of Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan. On Wednesday morning, our colleague Jonah Bromwich, who’s been reporting on the trial, called us up, starting with one big development.

jonah bromwich

Donald Trump has been held in criminal contempt. That’s a really, really big deal. He’s also been fined $9,000, but let’s put aside the fine for a second and just talk about what it means to be held in contempt. It means that he’s disobeyed the court and, in fact, flouted the law.

In March, the judge imposed a gag order that bars Trump from attacking witnesses, jurors, and various other people involved in the case. The judge found that Trump had violated this order nine separate times, thus the $9,000 penalty, $1,000 for each time he violated it. And it prompted the judge to warn him that if he continues to disobey, he could be sent to jail.

So what we have in front of us is the possibility that one of the most powerful people in the world, who was the commander-in-chief, who is now under the thumb of a New York state court trial judge could be sent to jail by that judge if he continues to do what he frequently does, which is disobey orders and lash out at his adversaries, whether real or perceived. Other than Trump having been held in contempt, we also have the trial proper in which witnesses testify.

We have what I would call tentpole witnesses. Those are the witnesses who are going to help unspool the narrative in a major way and who are going to get firm cross-examination by the defense. So far, we’ve had six witnesses overall, but we’ve only had two tentpole witnesses. The first we talked about last week — that was David Pecker, the former publisher of the “National Enquirer.”

And what Pecker said, just to remind you, is that he had entered into a secret plot with Trump and Michael Cohen to suppress negative stories about Trump and, thus, aid him in the 2016 election. And then, on Tuesday, we landed on our second tentpole witness, Keith Davidson. Keith Davidson was a lawyer to Stormy Daniels. He represented her in 2016 when she was seeking to be paid for her story of having had sex with Donald Trump, a story that Trump has always denied.

And Davidson on Tuesday kind of took the baton from David Pecker. He corroborated some of the testimony but then moved us on to Stormy Daniels. And as of Wednesday, when court is off, where we are is that Michael Cohen, in Davidson’s telling, back in 2016, is just about to pay him the $130,000 of hush money that will keep Stormy Daniels silent and, the Trump campaign believes, prosecutors say, help ease Trump’s path to the White House.

astead w. herndon

Jonah also updated us on how Trump appears to be taking all this.

jonah bromwich

I mean, we’ve seen emotion radiating from Trump in the courtroom. We’ve seen him glower. We’ve seen him glare. We’ve seen him shake his head. We’ve seen him look disgusted.

The other thing he does is he closes his eyes a lot. What it may be happening is that people in Trump’s orbit say he closes his eyes when he’s seeking to calm down. And so it may be that this testimony is so enraging him — and, to be clear, we’re hearing testimony about Trump having affairs, cheating, hiding it from his wife, Melania, being cheap, being frugal. And, of course, it’s making him mad.

astead w. herndon

Also this week, tensions escalated at many college campuses across the country as demonstrators continued protesting Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza. At Columbia University in New York City, more than 100 students were arrested after some demonstrators forcefully took over a campus building. The White House also weighed in, with White House spokesperson John Kirby saying the president believes that forcefully taking over a building on-campus is absolutely the wrong approach.

That is not an example of peaceful protest. There are 74 days until the Republican National Convention, 109 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 187 days until the general election. See you next week.

“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Huang, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Ittoop. It was mixed by Sophia Lanmon and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, Nick Pittman, and Jeffrey Miranda. Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at therunup@nytimes.com. Or better yet, record your question using the Voice Memo app on your phone and then send us the file. That, email, again is therunup@nytimes.com. And finally, if you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y’all.



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