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A week of intense Israeli air attacks on Lebanon has killed more than 550 Lebanese and displaced 90,000, pushing the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah closer to an all-out war – one that some believe has already begun in all but name.
But this conflict could still escalate further, as fears of an Israeli military ground invasion increase, and civilians flee the Lebanese south.
On Wednesday, Israeli officials announced that two regiments of reserve forces had been called up to the Northern Command, the branch of Israel’s military engaged in fighting Hezbollah.
While the news signalled that Israel may be planning to escalate the conflict further, analysts who spoke to Al Jazeera are sceptical that a ground invasion is imminent, although they noted that the situation remained volatile and Israel seemed to lack a clear strategy.
Two regiments “is not a lot, not for an invasion of Lebanon”, Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political analyst, told Al Jazeera. He added that, in Gaza, Israel deployed a much greater number – and that was for an enclave that is far smaller than Lebanon and against a force in Hamas that is less powerful militarily than Hezbollah.
“Right now, my assessment would be that it’s still for show, but it might change within 24 hours,” he said, noting that Israel seemed to lack a clear goal or strategy, making an assessment of their next moves more difficult. “We’re still on the brink, but I don’t think a decision has been made to launch an invasion.”
Momentum for war
The now almost yearlong war on Gaza has already put a great strain on the Israeli economy, military and society. Tens of thousands of Israeli reservists have been called up at various times by the military, taking them away from their jobs and their families. Israeli society is divided on the strategy being pursued by the government, with many calling for a focus on the release of the captives held in Gaza, rather than the defeat of Hamas.
And yet, with some 10,000 Israelis displaced from their homes in the north of the country since late last year as a result of Hezbollah rocket fire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged that the “threat” from Lebanon will be removed, by force, and that those forced to leave the north will return.
“For a year now, [the government has] been telling them that the only thing that will give [Israelis] the necessary security is a war,” said Goldberg. “So, a war has been in the cards pretty much forever. But Netanyahu is afraid to start a war because he’s afraid that if he launches a ground invasion, the Israeli public, [which] doesn’t trust him, will think of it as Netanyahu’s war.”
But, with events moving fast on the ground – particularly following Israel’s “pager attack” on Hezbollah and the subsequent killing of one of the group’s leaders and several other commanders in an air attack – all-out war appears closer than at any point in the last year.
“The possibility of an Israeli invasion in Lebanon is gaining momentum within the Israeli political and military establishment,” Imad Salamey, a professor of political science at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “Should the Israeli government opt for this strategy, it is likely that the invasion could commence within 72 hours, as Israel may believe that Hezbollah’s control and command structure has been sufficiently weakened, leaving the party vulnerable to a swift strike before it has the chance to regroup.”
An invasion, Salamey added, would almost inevitably lead to a protracted war, with a devastating effect on Lebanon’s civilian population.
“Hezbollah, although weakened, would likely respond with guerrilla tactics and retaliatory strikes aimed at Israeli military targets, potentially extending the conflict and making any occupation of southern Lebanon costly for Israel,” he said. “The group’s resilience and deep roots in the region suggest that any invasion would not lead to a quick or easy victory, instead resulting in protracted warfare with long-term consequences for both sides.”
During Israel’s last war with Lebanon in 2006 — which killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 158 Israelis, mostly soldiers – Hezbollah fighters displayed a competence with asymmetric tactics that surprised Israel, and analysts note they have only grown stronger since then, with an expanded arsenal and tunnel network. They also are able to resupply across the border with Syria, an advantage that Hamas in Gaza has not had.
Unclear goals, enormous cost
The long-term strategy behind Israel’s recent escalation is unclear, with some analysts noting that it may be an effort to distract from its own internal political crisis and redeem the military’s reputation domestically after a drawn-out war in Gaza that has failed to achieve Israel’s goals, even as it has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians.
Still, a ground war would have little political benefit for Israel, analysts warn, and it would come at an enormous cost to the civilians caught in the middle.
On the ground in Lebanon, they noted, Hezbollah retains a tactical advantage.
“If there is an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, paradoxically, Hezbollah could feel that it is back in its ‘comfort zone’ because they are used to fighting Israeli invasions, they know every single village in south Lebanon,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at St Joseph’s University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “They still have an abundance of fighters ready to try to repel this Israeli invasion.”
The enormous human cost of Israel’s air raids — the highest death toll since the Lebanese civil war (1975-90) — has given Israel “an edge in the psychological war”, added Bitar. But that could change with a ground invasion, in which Israel would likely have significant casualties of its own.
“So far, they have managed to accomplish several of their objectives, obviously at the cost of a human tragedy for the Lebanese civilians,” he said. “If they decide to wage a ground invasion, it would be a completely different ball game, and they might witness significant losses because even if Hezbollah has been weakened, Hezbollah still has the capacity to inflict harm on Israel.”
Goading Hezbollah
Whether Israeli officials are actually laying the ground for an invasion or merely escalating their threats of one — while continuing to carry out relentless air raids on Lebanon — their objective appears to be to force Hezbollah into either capitulating to Israeli demands or responding in a way that offers Israel a pretext for further attacks.
So far, neither scenario has materialised.
“They are really trying to do something quick, in the hopes that they might be able to bring so much pressure to bear on Hezbollah that they will have no choice but to try to negotiate a quick end to this thing,” Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel Program and senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, told Al Jazeera. “
Munayyer said that Israel was following the same playbook it used in Gaza, attacking civilian infrastructure and people’s homes, “hoping that if they can do so much of that, so quick, that it will essentially allow them to get out of the situation without a ground invasion, without a long … battle, and save them much of the costs of a war like that”.
“The Israelis were hoping with the assassinations, with the pager explosions and so on, that they’d be able to change the dynamic by doing something so significant, so unprecedented, that it would force Hezbollah to recalculate the idea of trying to make this a long drawn-out war,” he added. “But so far that doesn’t seem to have happened.”
Hezbollah has responded to Israel’s attacks by firing a barrage of missiles at Israeli air bases and attacking a naval base with drones. On Wednesday, it launched a missile attack that, for the first time, reached as far as Tel Aviv.
But so far, the group seems to have aimed for military targets alone — exercising a restraint that seems to have taken Israel by surprise.
“What they both want, Netanyahu and the military, is for Hezbollah to do something that would sort of force Israel’s hand. But Hezbollah is not doing that, Iran is not doing that,” said Goldberg. “Israel went in full force to try and goad Hezbollah into doing something. But Hezbollah has yet to bite.”
