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Israel’s Attack on Lebanon – Expert on Possible Further Scenarios
Israel’s Attack on Lebanon – Expert on Possible Further Scenarios
2024
Oleg Burunov
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Oleg Burunov
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Oleg Burunov
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israel’s just-announced military operation in lebanon, the war” in gaza, the explosion of pagers in hezbollah hands
israel’s just-announced military operation in lebanon, the war” in gaza, the explosion of pagers in hezbollah hands
The Israel Defense Forces announced on Monday the beginning of targeted ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, following hours of Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire across the border.
Netanyahu is «expanding the war for a number of reasons» related to the fact that he has been «empowered and emboldened by a series of intelligence successes,» Kamrava, who directs the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, said.
Kamrava also said that a «simple cost benefit analysis has demonstrated» to Netanyahu that «the benefits of expanding the war beyond Palestine and Gaza specifically, to include Lebanon and perhaps later Syria, is to his advantage. And of course, that’s what he’s trying to do.»
He referred to several possible scenarios which may unfold as the result of the Israeli operation, including «an expansion of the conflict to the extent that it will involve Iran.»
If the Islamic Republic «does attack Israel, then of course, the US will get involved. The other scenario, which I don’t think is likely, is for Netanyahu to pull back. So he can say, okay, we have achieved our ends, we’ve achieved our goals, we have seriously degraded Hezbollah. We have taken care of the northern border problem. We have almost destroyed Hamas. Not completely. And now it’s time to agree to a ceasefire,» Kamrava pointed out.
He didn’t rule out that, aside from the US, a number of other countries could be involved in the conflict, including France, Egypt and Qatar.
«It’s too early, we need to see to what extent Israel succeeds in its goal of pushing back Hezbollah. It [the Jewish state] cannot eradicate Hezbollah. What it can do is to destroy civilian infrastructure, which is part of its military doctrine,» Kamrava concluded.