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The wild-card round of the 2024 MLB playoffs has been all about the underdogs, as three teams defied the odds by winning on the road to advance to their respective divisional series.
Two underdogs (Tigers and Royals) even advanced via a series sweep, while the Mets took their fans on a rollercoaster ride after blowing a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning of Game 2, only to rally from a 2-0 ninth-inning deficit in Game 3 to win, 4-2.
Now the Mets get to face the Phillies in the NLDS, a series that starts on Saturday (4:08 p.m. ET, FOX). The Phillies, who won the regular-season series 7-6, will start ace Zack Wheeler in Game 1.
We’ve identified a best bet that offers value in Saturday’s Game 1.
Mets vs. Phillies odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +155 | +1.5 (-135) | o7.5 (+100) |
| Phillies | -185 | -1.5 (+115) | u7.5 (-120) |
Mets vs. Phillies prediction
The Mets pulled a stunner by announcing Kodai Senga, who made just one start this season (July 26) and threw 5 1/3 innings due to a strained calf, will get the ball in Game 1 opposite Wheeler.
With the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young award (+1000, DraftKings), there’s no doubt Wheeler is a high-quality pitcher.
However, it hasn’t exactly been a one-sided affair for the Phillies when he’s on the mound facing the Mets.
In his 15 career starts vs. the Amazins, Philadelphia is 7-8 straight-up for a loss of 2.82 units.
The Mets have a ton of familiarity going up against Wheeler since his move inside the division to Philadelphia. In 171 at-bats, this current Mets roster is hitting .281 with a .421 slug rate.
Wheeler is known for his ability to be economical with his pitches and last deep into games. Thus, the longer he pitches, the more likely the Mets are to scatter some hits.
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That was the case in his Sept. 22 start, where he went seven innings but gave up seven hits, including a home run by Brandon Nimmo.
That extended a streak of six or more hits in his last six starts against the Mets, and since he’ll be well-rested, don’t expect Phillies manager Rob Thompson to give him a quick hook unless he implodes.
Best bet: Mets to record over 4.5 hits against Zack Wheeler (-110, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
