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NASA has officially upgraded the likelihood of Earth being hit by asteroid 2024 YR4.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, now lists the chance of a collision in 2032 at 3.1 per cent, or roughly 1-in-32.
It has gone through a number of upgrades: the most recent estimate had put it at 2.6 per cent. At the end of January, it had been just 1 per cent.
Those changes are the result of more detailed observations, which have allowed scientists to considerably constrain the possible trajectory of the asteroid.
While it is still almost certain that the asteroid won’t hit, that work has allowed scientists to produce a possible impact risk corridor – which shows that more than 100 million people live in places that could potentially be hit by 2024 YR4.
NASA’s CNEOS still ranks the asteroid as a 3 on the Torino Scale, which combines the likelihood of an impact with a danger that it would cause. Though the scale goes up to 10, 2024 YR4’s size means that it could only ever reach eight – since 10 would be a globally devastating impact, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Scientists have estimated the asteroid as being probably 40-90 meters in size. That estimate is based on the brightness – and so could vary considerably based on how shiny the surface of the rock is, which astronomers are attempting to work out with more detailed observations.
The asteroid is currently flying away from Earth, and is expected to disappear from view around April. That means that further observations are being conducted in a hurry to ensure that scientists know as much about it as possible, since it will not be possible to study it again until 2028 – at which point it could be too late.
