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With only three football games left, there aren’t many spreads or totals left to beat.
So, it’s time to dig into the player prop market.
Here’s my favorite prop for each Championship game.
Gus Edwards Over 41.5 Rush Yards (-114, FanDuel)
I’m betting on the Ravens this weekend, and a big reason why is Baltimore’s rush offense against Kansas City’s front seven.
The Ravens lead the league in rush rate (51%), while ranking third in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate behind a front five that ranks sixth in Line Yards.
Only the Bears rushed for more regular-season yards than the Ravens’ 2,720.
Conversely, the Chiefs rank 27th in Rush Defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per Rush allowed behind a front four that ranks 25th in Line Yards.
The weak rush defense was on full display against Buffalo last week, with the Bills generating more than 180 rush yards at nearly five yards per carry with a 61% Success Rate.
Similarly, I expect Baltimore to bully Kansas City’s front seven with a rush-heavy game script, simultaneously moving the ball consistently and keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field.
That means plenty of carries for lead running back Gus Edwards.
Sure, Lamar Jackson is the engine of the Ravens’ attack, but Edwards still rushed for more than 800 yards on nearly 200 carries with a 54% Success Rate. He’s seen double-digit rushes in five straight games, and he should clear 41 yards with ease on that volume in an exquisite matchup.
For example, Edwards finished with 40 rushing yards on 10 carries against Houston last week, but that was against a nasty defensive line that finished second in Line Yards and Rush Defense DVOA.
The Texans are a dominant rush defense, and Edwards could see a monster increase in efficiency against a considerable step down in competition.
I expect 10-15 carries at five-plus yards per carry, cruising past this line in a winning effort.
Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+225, Bet365)
Sam LaPorta was the breakout tight end of the 2023 season.
The rookie finished the regular season fifth among tight ends in receiving yards, while leading ‘em all in touchdowns, likely because he saw the fourth-most red-zone targets (16) while converting the most scores (eight).
In these playoffs, LaPorta snagged a touchdown against the Rams while going off for nine receptions on 11 targets and 65 yards against the Bucs.
Jared Goff’s play drops off considerably on the road, but he’s still a sniper in ideal conditions – clear weather and a clean pocket.
Lucky for him, Sunday’s weather report looks great, with mid-60s temps and minimal wind.
Even luckier, the 49ers’ front seven was far from dominant this season. They were a poor rush defense that also failed to create much of a pass rush, ranking 18th in pressure rate (21%).
So, I expect Goff to play fine and hit his tight end plenty in this matchup.
He’ll have to, considering the 49ers are ripe to exploit Detroit’s porous pass defense. The Lions rank 29th in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades and bottom seven in both EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed.
Kyle Shanahan’s weapons should run freely in the Detroit secondary, scoring at will and, more pertinent to this article, putting Detroit into a pass-heavy game script.
If the Lions trail big early, Ben Johnson will have to lean heavily on Goff and LaPorta to throw them back in the game. That’d mean plenty more opportunities for LaPorta to find the endzone.
Betting on the NFL?
The number is good, too, given his anytime touchdown odds closed around +160 the past few weeks.
Obviously, that’s because the 49ers defense is rated much higher in the markets. However, their secondary trailed off in the second half, and we know they don’t produce a prolific pass rush.
You can pass on the 49ers, the Lions will have to and LaPorta will see those all-important red-zone targets. It’s the perfect storm.
