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It’s been a boom year for investors — but now, as global stock markets keep climbing, financial experts are warning that bubbles may be forming that could cost ordinary Americans thousands if they pop.
The US stock market is up more than 11 percent. Nvidia — the world’s most valuable company — has jumped around 32 percent. And gold? It’s shot up an eye-popping 56 percent.
With numbers like these, it’s no wonder investors are asking themselves how long this run can continue.
On Friday, Donald Trump’s threat to escalate the trade war with China sparked a sharp sell-off in US stocks. Shares have bounced back since, but the bigger worry is that excitement over AI and tech could have investors dreaming too big.
Jemma Slingo, investment specialist at Fidelity, said: ‘2025 has been a great year for investors so far — despite some bumps in the road Global stock markets have been climbing, and alternative assets such as gold and silver have soared in value. Nerves are setting in, however.’
Millions of ordinary investors are sitting on fatter retirement accounts, 401(k)s, and stock portfolios than they were a year ago. But history is a reminder that what goes up can also come down.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned last week that stock market valuations are creeping toward levels seen during the dotcom bubble 25 years ago.
Back then, the US market fell 50 percent, and it took years for many investors to recover. Wall Street giants have lined up to issue a warning.
Gold has been on a historic pricing tear this year – now, analysts at Bank of America are predicting that the trend will continue into 2026
Paul Tudor Jones — the hedge fund manager who predicted the 1987 market meltdown — said today’s market feels eerily to the dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, America’s most influential banker Jamie Dimon fears the US will slide into recession next year.
It is notoriously difficult to spot a bubble while you’re in it — only when it bursts do you know for sure it ever existed.
And investors may miss out if they sell too early in the belief a bubble could burst when markets may still have room to rise.
To help gauge risk, Daily Mail ran the rule over the most popular investments that have surged in value this year – and asked experts to rate how likely they are in ‘bubble’ territory.
US STOCK MARKET
The US stock market now accounts for more than 70 percent of the value of all Western global markets combined.
If you own a broad-market, tech, or AI-focused fund, you likely have a large exposure to US companies.
But just because the market is huge doesn’t mean it’s in a bubble. What really matters is whether the stocks themselves are fairly priced.
One common way to measure this is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio — how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar a company earns.
By this measure, the S&P 500 trades at about 23 times earnings — high compared with historical averages. For comparison, the UK’s FTSE 100 trades at about 18 times earnings.
Individual companies vary widely. Amazon’s P/E once shot above 900 but is now around 33. Tesla sits over 200, which many analysts see as extreme, while Comcast trades at just 5.
Another measure, the CAPE ratio, smooths profits over a 10-year period. According to Fidelity, North America’s CAPE ratio is approaching 40 — high, but below the 47 peak before the 2000 dotcom crash.
Even if the overall market isn’t in bubble territory, a handful of mega-tech stocks dominate it.
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla — sometimes called the ‘Magnificent Seven’ — now make up about a third of the S&P 500. Their huge influence means if one stumbles, it could shake the market.
Fidelity’s Slingo said: ‘If they stumble, however, shares have a long way to fall. Their financial results are due out this month and they will be studied very closely.’
Bubble-ometer score: 7/10
AI AND TECH COMPANIES
The Nasdaq, home to most major tech firms, is up 15 percent this year. Chipmakers Nvidia and AMD, along with cloud titan Oracle, have led the charge.
But the market’s love affair with tech comes with a catch. The Nasdaq’s P/E ratio of 33 and CAPE of 46 show investors are betting big on future profits. One stumble from a major company could trigger a sharp correction.
Analysts at Quilter point out that many Nasdaq firms still aren’t turning a profit — a red flag reminiscent of the dotcom bubble in 2000.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at the company, said that statistic ‘This clearly implies that there is a raised risk of a bubble. But it gives no signal about whether that could pop this week or years from now.’
Even so, the P/E ratio is still far below the extreme levels seen just before the dotcom crash.
Nvidia’s valuation is especially eye-catching: it’s now worth $4.45 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 51.
Bubble-ometer score: 8/10
Gold’s price is not a great sign for the US economy – normally, investors turn to the metal when they fear schisms on Wall Street. Analysts tell the Daily Mail that last Friday, when the market quickly dropped, traders flooded their cash into gold instead of crypto or other stocks
GOLD AND MINERS
Gold hit a record $4,000 an ounce last week, and now sits above $4,150, as investors seek a safe haven amid the US government shutdown, renewed US-China trade war fears, and recession fears in the US and abroad.
Analysts say it’s hard to define fair value since gold generates no income. Still, central banks are buying aggressively, and ordinary investors have piled in.
‘Demand for gold remains strong,’ Bret Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro, told the Daily Mail. ‘Last week’s trading volume in gold futures hit a multi-year high on the metal’s way to its eighth straight weekly gain.’
Like ancient kings hoarding the metal in temples or Depression-era Americans hiding coins under floorboards, gold is glinting as the ultimate security blanket.
On Monday, researchers at Bank of America raised their 2026 forecasts for the precious metal, predicting it will jump to over $5,000 an ounce.
Bubble-ometer score: 6/10
SILVER / COPPER / PLATINUM
It’s not just gold that’s glinting. Silver has outpaced gold this year, smashing its previous all-time high from 1980, while copper is up roughly 20 percent.
‘If gold is in a bubble, then silver probably is as well,’ said Ben Yearsley, director of Fairview Investing.
But unlike gold, which mainly thrives on fear and speculation, silver and copper have real-world demand.
Silver is essential for solar panels, while copper powers the world’s electrification push — from EVs to data centers. That link to industry, analysts say, gives both metals a sturdier footing.
Platinum, still tied to traditional combustion-engine vehicles, has lagged behind. Yet with EV adoption slowing outside China, demand for the metal could hold steady.
Bubble-ometer score: 2/10
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin have soared in 2025, with Bitcoin peaking at $125,000.
Crypto is no longer just for tech die-hards.
It’s now part of mainstream American investing, as Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Fidelity launch Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that let everyday investors buy crypto through their 401(k)s or brokerage accounts.
That institutional backing — combined with friendlier U.S. regulation and the perception of crypto as ‘digital gold’ — has fueled record inflows into the sector.
Still, the volatility hasn’t gone away. Bitcoin is up 19 percent this year, but has swung 8 percent in just days, a reminder that even as crypto grows up, the rollercoaster ride continues.
Bubble-ometer score: 9/10
REAL ESTATE
While attention has focused on stocks and crypto, many analysts say the US real estate market looks just as frothy.
Home prices in key metro areas have soared far faster than wages.
Miami, named the world’s riskiest property market by UBS, shows telltale signs of overheating: homes sitting longer, sellers cutting prices, and investors retreating.
A mix of stubborn inflation, high mortgage rates, and soaring insurance and property costs has squeezed the market.
In Florida, premiums tied to climate risk and new condo safety rules have made ownership increasingly expensive.
Investor Kevin O’Leary warns of a ‘crushing indicator’ — frozen homeowners. ‘People don’t want to sell because they can’t afford to give up their low mortgage rates,’ he said. ‘That’s choking supply and distorting prices.’
Across the country, for-sale listings are rising while demand fades — a pattern that mirrors 2006, just before the housing crash.
Some homeowners are delisting properties entirely rather than accepting lower offers.
Bubble-ometer score: 5/10
SHOULD YOU WORRY ABOUT A BUBBLE?
If you’re decades away from retirement, there’s time to ride out volatility. But older investors have less room to recover.
Still, ‘bubble’ is a fuzzy term — even economists can’t agree on what it really means.
And markets can defy logic for years. When Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned of ‘irrational exuberance’ in 1996, stocks doubled over the next three years.
Alastair Laing of CG Asset Management says it best: ‘You only recognize a bubble in hindsight — when you look back and ask, ‘What was I thinking?»
