SAN ANTONIO — Juan Soto turned 26 on the day of World Series Game 1 and of the 20 starting players for both teams that Friday night the only two younger were Anthony Volpe, who was a rookie in 2023, and Austin Wells, who was a rookie this year.
Soto’s age is mentioned quite often as part of the portfolio that promises to take him toward contract records in free agency. A position player this good, this young does not get out into the market that often and if you are waiting for it to happen again, well, grab a seat because it is going to be a while.
What is rare is valuable and Soto has the 17th-best Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement through their age-25 season in MLB history. There are others who rank better from the free-agent era, but Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones all signed extensions prior to hitting the market.
The only player to actually be bid upon in free agency who had a better WAR than Soto in this timeframe was Alex Rodriguez, who after his age-24 season in 2000 signed a record 10-year, $252 million with the Rangers.
The class picture is just not crowded for players this good, this young who reach free agency. Think Barry Bonds, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado. Remember after the 2015 season when so many were baffled why Jason Heyward received an eight-year, $184 million free-agent pact with the Cubs? It was based on that Heyward was a WAR darling, but also because he had just played his age-25 season (as Soto did in 2024 with the Yankees).
Teams will stretch to offer longer, more lucrative contracts when they get to buy a bunch of still prime years as part or the deal.
Consider that Pete Alonso’s rookie campaign was his age-24 year. That is more typical and why he is entering free agency through his age-29 season. It is among the reasons why Scott Boras will have a much more difficult time establishing a market of years and dollars for Alonso than Soto, who broke in at age-19.
Boras also happens to represent Gunnar Henderson. That is mentioned because Henderson is as close to currently playing and potentially falling into this category – kind of. The Orioles star shortstop is not even arbitration eligible this offseason, is not a free agent until after the 2028 campaign and will have completed his age-27 season then – not 25 like Soto. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, another Boras client, will not be a free agent after the 2029 season, also after his age-27 campaign.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will enter free agency next offseason following his age-26 season, but his market could be limited by lack of industry love for first basemen, conditioning questions and fluctuating production. For example, Guerrero has bounced from an OPS-plus of 106 to 167, climbed over 133 twice and has a career mark of 137. Soto has never been below 142 and a career 160 mark, which is eighth all-time for someone 25 or under between Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Joe DiMaggio.
Again, this is rare.
Look around the majors now. Young stars such as Corbin Carroll, Jackson Chourio, Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. already have signed extensions. Mookie Betts signed his extension after his age-26 season without getting into free agency. Ronald Acuna Jr. is under team control with the Braves through age-30, Yordan Alvarez with the Astros through age-31. And more established stars such as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani signed older and under control through their thirties.
Remember that last offseason, at least the Phillies, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were willing to bid $300 million or more (especially with the posting fee and potential luxury tax implications) to try to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had never pitched a game in the majors. It is because the righty was super talented, but also because he was coming after his age-24 season.
So an established major leaguer who does not run the same injury risk as a pitcher is likely to get interest from those four big-market teams – and others. It is what is likely going to soar Soto beyond a $500 million total outlay – and perhaps well north of that. It is why we are anticipating the Subway Series battle in the offseason for Soto that we did not get in the postseason after the Mets were eliminated in the NLCS.
Basically, the opportunity costs have to be baked into an offer for Soto because something that looks like him – this special, this established, this young, this available – is not going to come around again for a while.
