One of the constraints on Western nations was the supply chain. It takes around 300 ingredients to produce one vaccine. Unlike the West, China had control over all aspects of the supply chain which enabled them to produce vaccines very quickly. So for the first year of Covid, China had all the vaccines, and the West had very few. This allowed China to go to Africa, to go to South America and provide vaccines and although they weren’t perfect vaccines it was better than having nothing.
But of course, few would argue that China, with its very protracted and damaging lockdowns, is the model to follow. Whilst lower excess deaths and fast vaccine development are good measurements of a government’s ability to minimise the impact of a pandemic on its citizens, avoiding lockdowns in the first place should be the north star.
The debate as to whether lockdowns were right or wrong, are to some extent missing the point; fundamentally, lockdowns are at odds with the central tenets of democratic and liberal societies and their implementation is a failure of pandemic preparedness. What is required are effective pandemic plans that remove the need for a lockdown when the next pandemic hits.
Although the West is today much better prepared than before Covid, there is still much to be done. The Pandemic Agreement, if it can be agreed upon, is part of the solution but it won’t be enough. Western allies need to develop a joint pandemic strategy and anchor it clearly in an international institution. NATO could be a good umbrella for coordinating pandemic response with government agencies. If we had a similar sophistication in surveillance, risk assessments, attack simulations and investment as they have in defence, we would be a long way forward.
Defence investment, especially in the US, has proven to be an important driver of innovation. Pandemic response goals such as the 100-day mission to develop an effective vaccine for a new outbreak are more likely to be successful with the urgency and logistical capacity of defence. Now the crisis from Covid-19 has passed, it’s time for the West’s pandemic preparedness to reflect the true severity of the risks. The good news is that democracies are better suited for these efforts than any other form of government.
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