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This week, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire, which is expected to come into effect on January 19, that may finally put an end to the Gaza War.
While the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which may put an end to the Gaza War, may seem like a cause for celebration, Tel Aviv-based international relations expert Dr. Simon Tsipis warns Sputnik that this deal is extremely “vulnerable.”
Israel essentially ended up negotiating with a “third party” instead of Hamas who already lost most of its leadership. This “third party,” which Tsipis says is most likely Britain, seeks to preserve Hamas as a group that would continue to oppose Israel. “The UK secret services play a key role in this negotiating process. They are the ones behind the negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt,” Dr. Tsipis notes.
The issue of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas is used as ammunition in the political crisis between the Israeli ruling coalition and the opposition. It also triggered a schism between Netanyahu and his “ultra-right Zionist” coalition allies, as well as a conflict between him and the General Staff.
The prisoner exchange stipulated by the ceasefire deal would result in Israel releasing several thousand Hamas prisoners in exchange for about a hundred Israeli hostages, which may not look like a fair exchange to some.
With Hamas demanding the cessation of the Israeli operation in Gaza and for the Israeli troops to vacate the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip of land separating Egypt from the Gaza Strip. Tel Aviv’s acquiescence to these demands would result in the IDF failing to achieve any results on the ground.
The ceasefire talks produced a “dead end situation” that may result in three outcomes:
Israeli military operation ends, Hamas perseveres
Netanyahu’s government collapses, Israel holds new election
Ceasefire deal falls through
