If it was not already clear then our latest poll from the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania lays out in the starkest possible terms how the presidential election will come right down to the wire.
It shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat.
If the election were held tomorrow each would win 47 percent of the vote in a state that holds the keys to the White House, according to our latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll.
The state is likely to provide the tipping point in the election. Its 19 electoral college votes could take one candidate or the other past the threshold for victory on Nov. 5.
Of all the seven big battlegrounds, this is the most consequential.
J.L. Partners polled 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania on their voting intention from Oct 5 to Oct 8 using a variety of methods. The results carry a 3.5 percent margin of error
Both sides are pouring money and people into the state as they leave nothing to chance.
Trump held rallies in Scranton (once Joe Biden’s hometown) and Reading on Wednesday.
‘If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,’ he told supporters.
Harris deployed one of her top weapons, in the form of Barack Obama, a day later in Pittsburgh.
And both campaigns are spending more here on advertising than in any other state.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, said: ‘Taken together with everything we know, we could be set for one of the closest elections ever—on a par with the 2000 election between Bush and Gore.
‘Usually in polls like this we can detect if a candidate has an advantage under the surface but even here it is hard to divine: Both sides have things going for them, from Trump’s performance with independents on the issues, to Harris’ better targeting of the voters she needs to turn out.
‘With 96 percent of the state’s likely voters decided, who can turn out their voters the most is the one who has the best shot.
‘It really is all to play for in the Keystone State.’
The results show that Harris is dominating with women while Trump is far ahead with men
Trump was in Joe Biden’s hometown of Scranton last week, among other stops in Pennsylvania. ‘If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,’ he told supporters
To test voting intentions, J.L. Partners polled 800 likely voters in the state using a variety of methods, including landlines, cellphones and in-app questionnaires.
The results show the race could not be tighter.
Trump and J.D. Vance have the backing of 47 percent. And Harris and Tim Walz also win the support of 47 percent.
The other names on the ballot (a Libertarian ticket of Chase Oliver and Mike ter Matt and a Green ticket of Jill Stein and Rudolph Ware) manage just one-point each.
Trump won the state in 2016 by fewer than 70,000. He lost it four years later by a little more.
With everything so tight, the Republican and Democratic campaigns are intent on leaving it all on the field.
Latest data from AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, shows how the campaigns are spending more per electoral college vote in the state than anywhere else.
Harris at an event hosted by The Economic Club of Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University
Harris/Walz signs in Indiana, Pennsylvania, ahead of a visit by Trump last month
In Pennsylvania the amount so far is $13.5 million for each of the state’s 19 votes. The next closest is Michigan at $12.4 million.
The two sides are expected to pour $350 million into television ads in Pennsylvania— more than will be spent in the Mid-West battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin combined.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk is expected to make more appearances in the state supporting Trump. He joined the former president last weekend when Trump returned to the site of an attempted assassination.
What makes the battle so intriguing is the way the state acts as a microcosm of the whole election.
Trump’s path to victory lies in driving out supporters in blue collar towns and rural areas, while Harris must get out the vote in the big cities, where the population is more diverse.
Harris is due in Erie on Monday, where she will be making her 10th visit to the state since she replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate.
