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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a neck-and-neck battle for the White House with just one month to go before Election Day.
Polls show that in a nation of over 300 million, the closest presidential race in modern history is likely to be decided by just thousands of voters in seven battleground states.
When the data is processed through the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners model, it shows the ex-president winning in 56.7 percent of the simulations over Harris.
Voting by mail is already underway in a few states including North Carolina with more joining in the coming weeks. Early voting in person has also begun in a couple of states including Virginia and South Dakota.
At the same time, voter registration cutoffs start Sunday, with 15 states hitting their deadline date in the next few days including several battleground states.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race for the White House with one month to go before Election Day
Since presidents are not elected by a popular vote, the ‘swing’ or ‘battleground’ states are crucial to a winning strategy in the process that does count – the electoral college of 538 electors apportioned across the 50 states based on representation in the House and Senate.
The candidate to receive 270 electoral votes is the next President of the United States.
Harris has fewer paths to winning the electoral college than does Trump, but some of the biggest battleground states could go either way.
That is why both nominees have been repeatedly stumping in those states, where a total 93 electoral votes are up for grabs.
Consequently, hundreds of millions of dollars have also been dropped in those states for television and digital advertising in an effort to persuade and energize voters.
Here’s where the races stand in the biggest swing states of 2024:
Arizona
Arizona was once a decidedly red state in presidential elections, but it has been trending purple in recent years.
With 11 electoral votes up for grabs, it is the larger of the two western battleground states both candidates have been aggressively targeting.
Polls show Trump leading in the state by 1.7 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. The latest Emerson College poll at the end of September had the ex-president up 3 points.
More than $54 million in advertising is slated to be spent on the presidential race in the state alone from the beginning of October through Election Day.
Trump won the state in 2016 over Hillary Clinton by more than 3.5 points, or 91,000 votes.
But then the state went blue in 2020 for the first time since President Bill Clinton won it in 1996.
Biden’s victory in Arizona over Trump was determined by just over 10,000 votes or by three-tenths of a percent. It was the closest presidential contest in the state’s history.
In 2020, the state had massive turnout for the presidential election, but a small group of voters, largely in the educated and affluent suburbs changed their minds and went for the Democratic candidate.
The Latino vote and Native American vote were also important, strategists believe.
With that, both candidates have been actively campaigning in the state, which also has a closely watched Senate race in November.
Polls are open on Election Day from 6am to 7pm local time.
The deadline to register to vote in the state is Monday, October 7.
The state has early in-person voting, which begins October 9. It also has vote-by-mail. All ballots must be received by 7pm on Election Day.
Georgia
The Peach State could have the closest race in the country in 2024. With 16 electoral votes, it is one of two southern states in play.
Georgia has been red in a series of recent presidential elections, but then it elected a Democrat at the top of the ticket in 2020 as well as Democratic senators.
The latest average of polls by Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead by 1.5 points. The latest Quinnipiac Poll at the end of September had the ex-president up 5 points.
More than $63 million is set to be dropped on ads in the state in just over the final month before the election, according to tracking by AdImpact.
Trump won the state in 2016 by five points over Clinton or more than 211,000 votes. But then Biden flipped the state blue in 2020 for the first time since 1992 when Clinton won the state by a slim margin.
Biden eked out his victory with less than 12,000 votes voter Trump, or 0.2 percent of a point, in a rare win for Democrats in the south.
His win there was attributed to a growing number of non-white voters in the state as well as the suburbs trending away from the Republican party.
While Georgia has elected Democratic senators statewide in recent years, it also has Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who has said he will back Trump despite a contentious relationship.
Even with some GOP intraparty fighting in the state, Trump’s campaign sees Georgia as one of the likeliest battlegrounds for Republicans to flip back to red in 2024. Trump has frequented the state in recent weeks, and Republicans kicked off a statewide bus tour there Friday.
But Democrats insist they can hold Georgia and point to Senate victories there in tight races.
‘I feel very, very good about Georgia,’ said Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison on Friday.
He touted 24 offices set up across the state with more than 150 staff on the ground. And Harrison noted that Democrats there know how to win tight races, pointing to recent Senate victories that led to both Senate seats going blue.
‘I believe we are well poised to win Georgia once again,’ Harrison insisted while accusing Republicans of trying to keep people from voting.
Polls in the state are open on Election Day from 7am to 7pm local time.
The deadline for voters to register in-person, online or by mail is Monday, October 7.
Georgia also has voting by absentee ballot and early in-person voting. Absentee ballots must be returned by Election Day. Early in-person voting begins October 15.
Michigan
Michigan with its 15 electoral votes is part of the so-called ‘blue wall’ that Democrats see as crucial for their victory in the presidential election.
The latest polls show Harris up by 1.3 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average. A New York Times/Siena poll at the end of September had Harris up by just 1 point, a statistical tie.
Harris held a campaign rally in Flint on Friday. Trump held a rally in Saginaw on Thursday.
More than $75 million is slated to be spent on advertising there from October 1 through Election Day.
When Trump won the state in 2016, it was the first time a Republican won Michigan in a presidential election since 1988 when George H.W. Bush saw victory there.
The ex-president in 2016 won the state by just two-tenths of a point or 10,000 votes.
But the state reversed course and went blue again in 2020 for Biden. He won Michigan by more than 150,000 votes or 2.78 points.
It was locked in for Democrats in the last presidential election thanks to a surge in voters showing up especially in cities like Detroit as well as Trump bleeding support from groups including seniors and white college educated voters.
Democrats have an aggressive ground game they have been ramping up since Trump’s upset 2016 victory there to help keep their base energized as they see the state as a must-win for Democrats to hold the White House.
Democrats have seen a series of recent victories in Michigan that lend confidence to their ability hold the state even though it is expected to be tight.
They recently took a trifecta in the state winning control of both chambers of the state legislature and reelected a Democratic governor in the 2022 midterms.
However, there are variables that could have some impact on the outcome in Michigan, including whether those who cast ballots as ‘uncommitted’ in the Democratic primary in protest of the war in Gaza will show up for Democrats on Election Day.
Polls are open in the state from 7am to 8pm on Election Day.
For those who want to register to vote by mail or online, the deadline is October 21, but voters can also register in person on Election Day.
The state also has early in-person voting and absentee voting by mail. Absentee ballots must be received by the local clerk’s office by 8pm on Election Day to be counted.
Nevada
Nevada has six electoral votes up for grabs and has elected both Democrats and Republicans statewide in recent years, making it one of the more likely swing states to potentially go red in 2024.
The Silver State has long been a swing state.
The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls has Harris up by just 1 point. The Cook Political Report also has the vice president up just 1 point.
Roughly $24 million are set to be spent on the 2024 presidential race in Nevada in the final month of the race.
Biden won the state in 2020 by less than 35,000 votes or just 2.39 percent. More people turned out in the last election than in 2016 when Clinton won the state by a similar margin over Trump or 27,000 votes.
The last Republican to win the state in a presidential election was George W. Bush in 2004. But its economy, which relies heavily on the service industries, was devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.
In 2022, voters ousted their Democratic governor and elected Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo by just 13,000 votes even as Democrats managed to hold the Senate seat. Republicans were helped in the state by independent voters.
Nevada is a vote-by-mail state, meaning every active registered voter will be mailed a ballot that can be returned by mail or in person.
Ballots start going out October 16. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day or received in person by 7pm. The state also has early in-person voting, which starts October 17.
Polls are open in the state on Election Day from 7am to 7pm local time for people to cast their ballots in person as well.
Nevada voters who register online have an October 23 deadline. Those who register by mail must have it postmarked by October 8. However, voters can also register in person on Election Day.
North Carolina
North Carolina is a purple state that has gone red in the last two presidential elections while electing Democrats down ballot statewide.
Democrats see the state, with its 16 electoral votes, as one of their few options to flip from red to blue in 2024. If they pull it off on Election Night, it could be an early sign of where the race is headed.
Trump is up just over half a point in the state, according to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls. The Emerson College poll from the end of September have the ex-president up just 1 point.
More than $60 million is expected to be spent on advertising there from October 1 through the election.
Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by less than 75,000 votes or just over 1.3 points. But it was a closer margin than when he won the state in 2016. That year, Trump beat Clinton in the Tar Heel State by more than 173,000 votes more than 3.6 points.
Both candidates have been aggressively campaigning in the state, but the devastation from Hurricane Helene in the western part of the state could have an impact on turnout.
The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election was Obama in 2008. Before that the only Democrat to win it in more than 40 years was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Republicans were also able to hold the state’s Senate seat in 2022.
However, while Trump was winning at the top of the ticket there in 2016 and 2020, North Carolina elected Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
The state has another even more contentious gubernatorial race in 2024 with GOP candidate Mark Robinson being abandoned by Republicans in the state after his past inflammatory and disturbing comments online surfaced.
Meanwhile, Democrats are also eyeing the younger, more diverse population in the state to help them turn it blue once again.
They have upped their ground game including in the state’s largely rural areas to try and cut into Trump’s margins as rural counties have trended further red in recent years.
Polls in North Carolina are open from 6:30am to 7:30pm local time on Election Day.
The state also has early in-person voting starting October 17 and absentee voting by mail. Mail-in ballots have already begun going out in the state. They must be received by 7:30pm local time on Election Day to count.
North Carolinians must register to vote by mail or online by October 11, but they can also register in person during the early voting period.
Pennsylvania
The entire race could come down to Pennsylvania.
The latest polling shows Trump and Harris tied in the Keystone State, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Both the latest Fox News and Emerson College poll also had the race a dead heat.
Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes is the largest of the battleground states and one that has gone both red and blue in recent years.
More than $130 million is expected to be spent on ads in the state in the month before Election Day alone.
Biden won the state in 2020 by 80,000 votes or just over 1 point.
But Trump won the state by 44,000 votes over Clinton in 2016 or less than a point after rural voters joined the electorate and voted red. He was the first Republican to win the state in a presidential race since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Pennsylvania is part of Democrats’ ‘blue wall’ strategy and without it, the path to victory is extremely complicated for Harris. Democrats have not won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948.
With that, both campaigns have carried out an aggressive ground game there.
Democrats need to see high turnout in the major cities, including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as a strong showing in their surrounding suburbs.
Republicans need to run up their margins in the state’s rural areas and make headway in the suburbs.
Both candidates have been campaigning throughout the Keystone State. Trump is heading back to the state Saturday where he will return to Butler where he was shot on July.
Harris has been aggressively campaigning in and around the cities, but she as even ventured into some more rural Trump counties as she attempts to leave nothing on the table.
Polls in Pennsylvania are open from 7am to 8pm local time.
The state also has absentee voting and allows voters to fill out mail-in ballots in person before Election Day. Mailed ballot must be received on Election Day to count.
The deadline for Pennsylvanians to register to vote either online, by mail or in person is October 21.
Wisconsin
The Badger State has 10 electoral votes up for grabs and has been a mixed bag when it comes to electing Democrats and Republicans statewide in recent years.
Harris is up less than 1 point in the state, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. The New York Times/Siena poll has the vice president up by 2 points.
More than $47 million is expected to be spent on the presidential race there between October 1 and Election day on advertising.
Biden won the state by just 20,000 votes in 2020 or less than a point after Trump flipped the state red in 2016 also by less than a point over Clinton with just 22,000 more votes that the Democratic nominee.
Before Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, the last Republican to win the state in a presidential election was President Reagan in 1984.
His victory came thanks, in part, to turnout being down in the state’s major city, Milwaukee, as well as the suburbs, while Trump also outperformed past Republicans in rural areas.
Biden flipped the state back to blue with a strong showing in cities including Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay as well as the suburbs.
Wisconsin is the third state that makes up Democrats’ ‘blue wall.’
Harris campaigned there with conservative former Congresswoman Liz Cheney on Thursday. Trump is returning to the state for a rally in Juneau on Sunday after campaigning in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Polls in the state are open from 7am to 8pm local time.
Wisconsin also has early in-person absentee voting and absentee voting by mail. Early in-person voting begins October 22. Absentee ballots by mail must be returned by 8pm on Election Day.
The deadline to register to vote in the state online or by mail is October 16, but Wisconsin also has same-day registration on November 5.
