One of the great things about international soccer tournaments is that the entire competition can be thrown into chaos at any moment.
That’s exactly what happened on the final days of the group stage at Euro 2024.
Austria and Romania surprised the soccer world by winning their groups, while Georgia pulled its own stunner by defeating Portugal to qualify for the knockout stage in its first appearance at a major tournament.
The ripple effect of those results was that they threw the draw into complete chaos, with Spain, Germany, France, Belgium and Portugal landing on one half of the draw, while England — which has disappointed through three matches — found itself in a cushy half of the bracket with the Netherlands and Italy as the only other heavyweights on their side.
Even that description is a bit flattering considering how those two teams have played so far.
An unbalanced draw like this one will completely shake up the betting board and gives punters the opportunity to scoop up some value on teams they may have passed on before the tournament began.
Here are two to consider:
Netherlands (13/1, FanDuel)
Sometimes things just break your way.
That’s exactly what’s happened to the Netherlands at Euro 2024.
The Dutch were pedestrian at best en route to a 1-1-1 showing in the group stage and finished in third place behind Austria and France, but that worked out for the best as they will now face Romania in the Round of 16 and, should they prevail, the winner between Austria and Turkey in the quarterfinals.
The Netherlands has shown glimpses of good and bad in this tournament, but it should feel terrific about its chances to get into the semifinals where it would take on England, Italy, Switzerland or Slovakia.
It’s hard to imagine a more favorable path for a team that is still searching for its best soccer.
It’s been a frustrating start to Euro 2024 for Belgium and it’s paying the price with a tough draw.
Had the Red Devils won their group, they’d be on the soft side of the draw.
But they allowed Romania to pass them on the final day of the group stages and now have to sort through a match with France in the Round of 16 and then likely a date with Portugal in the quarterfinals.
It’s the type of draw that will keep most bettors from considering a punt on the Belgians, but that’s a good thing for those looking to snatch up some extra value on a team that has enough talent in its ranks to win this tournament.
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That talent has yet to shine through at Euro 2024, but that doesn’t mean the likes of Kevin de Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Jeremy Doku won’t click into gear as we get deeper into the tournament.
And while the path through France and Portugal is not ideal, it’s not as if Les Bleus have been at their best so far in Germany.
And Portugal is managed by Roberto Martinez, who was in the dugout for the Belgians from 2016 to 2022, so the familiarity could help the Red Devils pull the upset.
There may not be many bettors looking to back Belgium at this point, but getting 30/1 on a team that was half the price a few days ago looks tempting.
