Padres vs. Brewers NLDS preview: Matchups, pitching, lineups and prediction

Maybe the Padres like facing the National League Central Division. 

San Diego took care of some unfinished business against one NL Central opponent this week, now they get the division’s heavyweight. 

The Padres swept the Cubs out of the NL Wild Card Series on Wednesday and head to Milwaukee for an NLDS matchup against the 103-win Brewers, the team with the best record in baseball this season. 

Despite their dominant regular season, the Brewers won’t be thrilled to see San Diego on Saturday. The Padres won four of the six meetings between the teams this season, including a three-game sweep at Petco Park in August. 

San Diego is also the hottest team in baseball over the last two months and went 18-6 in September before dismantling MLB’s highest-scoring offense in two games in the wild-card matchup.

If the Braves and Dodgers NLDS is billed as a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, then the Padres and Brewers is the unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. 

Milwaukee also went 18-6 in September and has had an identical number of wins as San Diego since the start of August with 38. This best-of-five collision is between the two hottest teams left standing. 

Game 1 is set for Saturday night at American Family Field, where the Brewers went 55-26, tied for the best home record in baseball this season. The Padres counter with a roster loaded with postseason scars and star power. Oh, and we didn’t even mention they have the most terrifying bullpen in the playoffs. 

The Post’s Michael J. Duarte takes a look at how the Padres and Brewers stack up this October:

At the plate

This is where Milwaukee quietly suffocates teams.

The Brewers led the majors in batting average (.258) and on-base percentage (.341), scoring 832 runs despite finishing near the bottom of baseball with 154 home runs. 

The Brewers don’t need to bludgeon you. They peck, scratch, walk, run and generally turn a pitching staff’s evening into a root canal appointment. 

Milwaukee also tied for the MLB lead by seeing 3.97 pitches per plate appearance. That kind of plate discipline is important in October, when knocking an elite starting pitcher out of the game can be as valuable as hitting a home run off them. 

Brice Turang has become the Brewers’ engine. He finished with an .816 OPS, 21 homers and 100 RBIs and then hit .361 with a .475 OBP in September. William Contreras drove in an MLB-best 24 runs during the final month. Jackson Chourio gives Milwaukee another dynamic threat near the top.

The Padres’ full-season .319 OBP doesn’t belong in the same neighborhood, but that number is increasingly misleading. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Ty France all surged late, and the Padres had baseball’s hottest offense in September before scoring 12 runs in their two-game domination of Chicago.

Most importantly, San Diego doesn’t strike out excessively. The Padres ranked 10th in MLB at avoiding strikeouts, a valuable commodity when October pitching starts throwing napalm.

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Edge: Brewers

Power

Here is where the Padres can change a game before the beer vendor finishes walking down the first aisle.

San Diego hit 183 homers to Milwaukee’s 154, with Manny Machado reaching 30, Merrill 26, Tatis 25 and France 21. Tatis’ season was especially bizarre: After going homerless for nearly two months, he hit 25 beginning May 30 and carried that heater into October with a leadoff blast against Chicago. Machado followed four pitches later. Bogaerts and Gavin Sheets also went deep for the Padres in the wild-card round.

The Padres also possess a particularly intriguing weapon against Jacob Misiorowski.

Nobody in baseball handled premium velocity better than San Diego. They led the majors with a .343 wOBA against fastballs of at least 96 mph. In September, that number exploded to .441. The Padres also tied for second in baseball in average bat speed at 72.8 mph. Milwaukee ranked third against 96-plus velocity at .325, so the Brewers aren’t exactly bringing a butter knife to this gunfight, either.

Still, Misiorowski isn’t merely another hard thrower. He is the soon-to-be NL Cy Young Award winner and a pitching lab experiment that escaped containment. His fastball routinely reaches triple digits, and he finished with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a .157 opponents’ batting average — the lowest recorded by a starter.

The most irresistible matchup of Game 1 is baseball’s best high-velocity offense against perhaps baseball’s most violent fastball.

Edge: Padres

Projected Lineups

Padres

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF

2. Dustin Harris, LF

3. Manny Machado, 3B

4. Ty France, 1B

5. Jackson Merrill, CF

6. Xander Bogaerts, SS

7. Austin Hays, DH

8. Jake Cronenworth, 2B

9. Luis Campusano, C

Brewers

1. Jackson Chourio, LF

2. Brice Turang, 2B

3. William Contreras, C

4. Andrew Vaughn, 1B

5.  Christian Yelich, DH

6.  Sal Frelick, RF

7. Joey Ortiz, 3B

8. Garrett Mitchell, CF

9. Cooper Pratt, SS

In the field

On the diamond, Milwaukee has one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball in Turang, whose 23 defensive runs saved ranked second among all major-league position players. 

Rookie Cooper Pratt has been impressive at shortstop, and Joey Ortiz was excellent after shifting to third. Milwaukee finished with 62 defensive runs saved as a team.

The Padres’ infield might be older, but they aren’t statues. 

Machado remains magnificent at third and led the position with +8 Fielding Run Value. France produced +7 Outs Above Average at first, second only to Matt Olson among MLB first basemen. Bogaerts isn’t the shortstop he once was, but October isn’t foreign soil for a man with 56 career postseason games.

Jake Cronenworth versus Turang is the biggest mismatch. Cronenworth produced a career-worst .629 OPS in an injury-shortened season, while Turang became one of the sport’s most valuable second basemen.

Behind the plate, Contreras gives Milwaukee another advantage. He threw out 34.2% of attempted base stealers and supplied significantly more offensive certainty than San Diego’s three-headed catching arrangement of Campusano, Freddy Fermin and 20-year-old Ethan Salas.

Edge: Brewers

In the outfield

In the outfield the pendulum swings. 

Tatis is still one of baseball’s premier defensive right fielders, with two Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves already on his resume.  Put the glove together with 25 homers, 38 steals and his scorching finish, and there aren’t many players remaining in October capable of affecting a game in more ways.

Merrill gives San Diego another difference-maker in center. His .743 OPS was disappointing by his standards, but he still hit a career-high 26 homers, stole 27 bases and finished fourth among MLB center fielders with 4.2 fWAR.

Left field is San Diego’s soft spot after Ramón Laureano’s season-ending hip surgery, leaving Harris, Austin Hays, Samad Taylor and others to piece the position together.

Milwaukee is much more complete.

Chourio became the first player in MLB history with three 20-homer, 20-steal seasons before turning 23. Garrett Mitchell produced +7 OAA in center while posting a .354 OBP. Sal Frelick doesn’t bring much power, but he almost never swings through anything.

The Brewers are deeper, but the Padres have the two best outfielders in the series. 

Edge: Padres

On the basepaths

Don’t look away when either team gets somebody aboard. The Padres stole 164 bases during the regular season. Milwaukee stole 162.

San Diego’s Big 3 are Tatis (38), Merrill (27) and Bogaerts (22), but Milwaukee can answer with Chourio, Turang, David Hamilton, Pratt, Mitchell and enough team speed to turn a routine single into a traffic violation.

Contreras and Campusano both have strong throwing numbers, so neither club can run recklessly.

Edge: Even

Bench

Sheets already showed what San Diego’s bench can do when he came off it and blasted a two-run homer against the Cubs. Miguel Andujar gives the Padres a dangerous right-handed bat. Hays can start against certain matchups, and San Diego can mix and match at catcher with Campusano, Fermin and Salas.

That three-catcher construction is unconventional, but October rewards specialization.

Milwaukee counters with considerably more positional flexibility. Andrew Vaughn can supply a right-handed bat at first or DH. David Hamilton brings elite speed and can handle multiple infield spots. Gary Sánchez provides instant power at catcher or DH, while Luis Lara and Brandon Lockridge offer Pat Murphy additional outfield configurations depending on matchups.

Edge: Brewers

On the mound

Let’s start with the starting rotation. This is Milwaukee’s clearest advantage, but the chasm is not as wide as you think.

The Padres will give the baseball to Robbie Ray in Game 1 against Jacob Misiorowski, saving Michael King for Game 2 on Sunday against Logan Henderson.

Ray has plenty of October mileage and gives the Brewers a different look from the right-handers behind him, but his arrival in San Diego has been turbulent. He posted a 5.02 ERA after the trade and now gets the unenviable assignment of matching zeroes with the most overwhelming starting pitcher in baseball.

Misiorowski just authored one of the most outrageous seasons by a young starter in recent memory: 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a .157 opponents’ batting average.

That’s the mountain waiting for San Diego on Saturday night.

King returns on normal rest Sunday after carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series. He has become San Diego’s October ace, with a 2.05 career postseason ERA, and pushing him to Game 2 creates another enormous benefit: If this series reaches a winner-take-all Game 5, King can take the baseball on normal rest again.

Milwaukee will answer Sunday with Henderson, the 24-year-old right-hander who went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and has never allowed more than three runs in any of his first 23 major-league starts.

Nick Pivetta should follow in Game 3 at Petco Park. After missing nearly five months with a flexor strain, Pivetta has been excellent since returning, even if his wild-card start against Chicago lasted 3.1 innings. Pivetta was easily the ace of the Padres’ staff last season.

Game 4 is where both teams may begin emptying the junk drawer.

San Diego could return to Ray on short rest, use Walker Buehler or construct a bullpen game. Milwaukee has Robert Gasser, Dustin May and a collection of potential openers and bulk arms available depending on how the first three games unfold.

Edge: Brewers

If the Brewers’ strength is starting pitching, then the Padres is their bullpen. 

San Diego’s bullpen is a monster hiding under the bed. 

The Padres led MLB relievers with 8.9 fWAR and produced a major-league-best 3.33 xERA. Adrián Morejón gives manager Craig Stammen an elite left-handed setup option. Bradgley Rodriguez throws 98. Jason Adam is healthy again. Yuki Matsui provides another left-handed look. And then the bullpen doors open for Mason Miller, one of the best closers in all of baseball.

Miller struck out 129 batters in 70 innings — 16.6 per nine — while finishing in Statcast’s 100th percentile in xERA, expected batting average, fastball velocity, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

If San Diego leads after six, the Brewers may effectively have three outs left to save their evening.

Milwaukee’s bullpen was excellent, finishing with a 3.40 ERA. Trevor Megill saved 30 games with a career-best 0.89 WHIP. Abner Uribe has closer-quality stuff, Aaron Ashby gives Murphy a durable left-handed weapon, and DL Hall, JoJo Romero and others give the Brewers considerable matchup flexibility.

Most years, that would be enough to own this category. Not this year.

Edge: Padres

Manager

This might be the most fascinating managerial matchup of the Division Series.

Stammen is doing this in his first season as a major-league manager after replacing Mike Shildt. Instead of inheriting a cruise ship, he inherited a roster with an aging core, rotation uncertainty and enormous expectations.

Things got off to a rocky start through July, when Stammen said the team got together to have some “hard conversations.” But after that they caught fire in August and September and still managed to win 90 games. 

Then he navigated the wild-card round beautifully, trusting King deep into Game 1 and aggressively deploying his bullpen to finish Chicago in Game 2.

Across the diamond is a man San Diego knows quite well.

Murphy got his first major-league managing opportunity as the Padres’ interim skipper in 2015. A decade later, he has turned Milwaukee into a winning machine.

The back-to-back NL Manager of the Year has guided the Brewers to four consecutive NL Central titles, and this year’s 103 victories established a franchise record. His club isn’t constructed around a billion-dollar payroll or a lineup of future Hall of Famers. Milwaukee wins with development, defense, depth, matchups and an almost irritating refusal to beat itself.

Edge: Brewers

Intangibles

Milwaukee earned the right to put its feet up and rest a week while San Diego had to fight Chicago.

That gave Misiorowski, Henderson and the Brewers’ bullpen extra rest and allowed injured players such as Ortiz additional recovery time.

Normally, you’d hand Milwaukee the advantage and move along.

But the Padres aren’t exactly limping into the NLDS. They have been kicking down doors since August and have the best record in baseball over that time. They didn’t get to rest and probably wanted to keep playing considering how hot they’ve been. 

There is also something to be said for already having felt October’s pulse.

San Diego has played two elimination-style postseason games this week. Tatis has homered. Machado has homered. Bogaerts has delivered. King has dominated. Sheets has come off the bench cold and gone deep. Miller has already felt the ninth inning.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee hasn’t played since Sunday. 

Rest is valuable, but staying in a rhythm, especially the one the Padres have been in for the last two months, is better. 

Edge: Padres