President Trump’s trip to upstate New York next week is a bid to help his pal Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman — but also to help prevent Republican House seats from slipping away.
Trump is set to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidate Blakeman in Syracuse on Oct. 9, as the GOP looks to juice turnout in a state where several House races are suddenly competitive.
Blakeman, who has been attacking Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul on tax cuts and energy costs, has been keeping his own race competitive.
But he also has an effect on candidates down the ticket, and Trump needs to try to make sure Republicans are enthusiastic enough to show up and vote.
“In ‘22, New York state determined the House majority. And in 2026, New York could determine it again,” said one Republican operative.
Republicans point to former Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R-NY) 2022 campaign for governor, arguing that his bid helped drive Republican turnout across the state even though he ultimately lost to Hochul, 53%-47%.
The challenge for Trump is that his ability to fire up Republicans comes with a potential downside: He is deeply unpopular with many New York Democrats who are gunning to vote.
“I think it’s going to cut both ways. On the one hand, Trump’s negatives in New York are very deep. People are very emotional — the ones that don’t like Trump really don’t like him,” said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship.
But he can also help fill the Republican enthusiasm gap, said Reeher: “Certainly one thing the guy is good at is getting people ramped up. On balance it may be something that could help the Republican candidates.”
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) made her own political trip upstate last week, with a plan to set up campaign infrastructure to turn out low propensity voters.
Republican Anthony Constantino, a candidate in New York’s 21st Congressional District, is among those GOP candidates who have most enthusiastically hugged Trump. He even put a Trump sign on the roof of his sticker business.
Constantino announced Thursday that he was loaning another $4 million to his campaign as he tries to keep retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s seat in GOP hands, bringing his total personal loans to $16 million.
His race is drawing unusual attention in the North Country, where the district has traditionally been safely Republican. His Democratic opponent, Blake Gendebien, said his campaign raised $2 million in the last fundraising quarter.
Constantino might need to spend the money he’s loaned, thanks to signs of a “blue wave” that could take down Republican candidates due to high gas prices and the unpopular trade war with Canada.
“That district should not be competitive,” said Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report.
Trump won it by 21 percentage points in 2024, but Covey pointed to Constantino’s polarizing image and the trade war’s particular impact on the region as factors making the race more competitive.
And then there’s Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), whose Hudson Valley seat is one of the country’s most closely watched House battlegrounds.
Lawler’s race against Democrat Cait Conley is currently razor close: An Emerson College poll released Wednesday had Conley ahead 48%-46%, while a new internal Lawler poll showed the Republican ahead 50%-47% — both within the respective margins of error.
“That’s a guy that’s going to be really worried about the turnout issue,” said Reeher.
Trump’s trip to Syracuse could also help Republican Kailee Buller, a former top aide to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. She is trying to topple Rep. John Mannion (D-NY), who won his last race with 55% of the vote.
